On Monday, I had two systems fail. We'll be using these systems continuously throughout this week, so if you read this article earlier in the week, you'll find some of the same information. However, this update includes Friday's slate selections and additional information specific to that game.
One of the two systems highlighted earlier this week, which totals over when the home winning team is playing the second game of a back-to-back, will not be used on Friday. The plays he made with this system earlier this week didn't hit, but even if we favor this system in his three games in which it was used, he would still be 2-1 this week.
A new system tool in DraftKings Sportsbook's Stats Hub highlights plays based on a variety of factors that show trends over the past seven days, past 30 days, and over the season. In this article, we'll take a look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week, with the goal of finding other games that can be applied to those systems in next week's games.
There is one thing to note about the upcoming system that matches the sections throughout this article. NBA favorites/losers, spreads, and totals are typically not available until the night before the game. Also, some systems may be based on the results of previous games. Please make sure the games described in this section match before making your selection.
System: Home favorites who did not play the previous day ATS
This season, the system is even with 267 wins, 267 losses, and 7 losses. But until last week, this system wasn't worth considering at all. Over the past seven days, home favorites are 15-8 ATS after not playing the previous day.I'm doing a heat check on this play.
System performance since March 18th
System – 8-8
My recommendation – 0-1
System Picks for March 22nd
The system has been used 16 times since we last checked in, and there are five more games to choose from on Friday.
MIN vs. CLE SAS vs. MEM MIA vs. NOP GSW vs. IND LAL vs. PHI
Two teams stand out to me in this grouping: San Antonio and Miami.
The Spurs aren't often favorites at home, but they are 4-1 against the spread when playing in this setting. This will be the first time these two teams will meet with San Antonio as the favorite. That would be the case without Ja Morant (out) and Desmond Bane (questionable). Please review Bane before proceeding with this play. Considering the tag and spread location, he seems off-limits. Even if Memphis plays, they may not be back to being favorites, but I think they will at least narrow the spread.
Speaking of labor shortages, New Orleans is probably the same. We hope Brandon Ingram recovers quickly, but given the uncertainty of his injury and this back-to-back, it seems likely that he will be out as well. (There are no injury reports for New Orleans at the time of writing.) With him out and Bam Adebayo (questionable) potentially returning, Miami looks like it's going to be tough for Zion Williamson and his guys. . The only caveat here is that ideally this number should be 2.5 instead of the current 3. Still, if Miami plays as a home favorite after a win, his ATS this season is his 6-4, so it helps my thinking that this is a good setup. With that number.
Pick: MIA -3; SA -6.5
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All views expressed are my own. Although I am a DraftKings employee, I am not eligible to participate in his public DFS or DKSB contests.
Nothing contained in this article is intended to represent that any particular strategy guarantees success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
