Editor's note: Hussein Ibish He is a senior resident researcher at the Arab and Gulf States Institute in Washington. His latest book is What's Wrong with the One Nation Agenda? Why is ending the occupation and achieving peace with Israel still a Palestinian national goal? ” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more his opinion on CNN.
CNN —
In recent weeks, there has been an eerie relative calm in the Middle East (with the obvious exception of Gaza) since the highly alarming exchange of missile, rocket and drone attacks by Israel and Iran. Concerns about an impending regional war have receded, and both sides, for now anyway, have enough public morale to restore strategic deterrence and offset criticism from hawks and hardliners. This suggests that they believe it has increased.
Courtesy of Hussein Ibish
Hussein Ibish.
For the time being, neither Israel nor Iran appear to want direct war with each other, and both countries seem prepared to believe that the recent exchange of attacks has been resolved, if not the root cause. It is certainly a relief that there appear to be no deaths in either country, as both sides have the obvious ability to inflict even more destruction and death to both territories if it so desires. This was definitely intentional.
But that by no means means the conflict is over. On the contrary, just as the October 7 Hamas-led attack from Gaza into southern Israel caused tensions that ultimately led to the first direct Iranian attack on Israel in history and Israel's retaliation against Iran. , it appears that the struggle between the two superpowers is beginning to move forward. On to the next stage, and even more ominously, to the next level.
Time may be ticking for Lebanon. An Israeli offensive is looming in the coming weeks, causing massive destruction on both sides and dealing a devastating blow to the Biden administration's policy to contain the conflict in the Middle East.
Israel had already threatened and appeared to be preparing for a major attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon later this spring or early summer, according to U.S. government and intelligence officials. Now, the recent exchange of direct military strikes with Iran may have sealed Lebanon's fate unless Team Biden can rein in Israel.
It is important to remember here how the recent shootout between Israel and Iran began. On April 1, Israel attacked Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus, killing numerous Iranian officials, including an Iranian brigadier general. General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. his deputy, General Haji Rahimi; And perhaps most importantly, Brig. Gen. Hossein Amirola, chief of staff for Iran's Expeditionary Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon.
Luai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images
The destroyed Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, January 20, 2024.
For Israel, these senior commanders have long been threatened with efforts by Iran's extensive network of militias and armed groups in the Arab world, led by Hezbollah, to help Hamas defeat Israel in the Gaza Strip. He claimed to be leading Hezbollah's efforts to prepare for a possible Israeli attack. In Lebanon.
That this accusation is almost certainly true makes sense, given international customs and norms regarding extraterritoriality in diplomatic facilities of other countries, why Tehran is deeply concerned about the attack on its consulate in Damascus, which it considered part of its territory. It just highlights how hurt you are.
Washington's overriding key directive regarding the post-October 7 crisis is to contain the conflict and prevent large-scale fighting from spreading beyond Gaza, particularly into Lebanon.
The fear is that such escalation could easily involve the United States and Iran, leading to the first regional war in modern Middle Eastern history and the possibility of direct conflict between Washington and Tehran. Of course, there are many hardliners in Israel, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who have long called for a U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, simply in the hopes of finally realizing their long-frustrated aspirations. You may be tempted to escalate further.
October 7 led many Israeli hardliners to a new, even more uncompromising stance on national security, especially regarding Iranian-backed groups near Israel's border.
Hussein Ibish
However, that is not the main reason for Israel's attack on Lebanon, and there is no guarantee that such an event will occur. Instead, October 7 led many Israeli hardliners to a new, even more intransigent stance on national security, especially regarding Iranian-backed groups near Israel's border.
Days after October 7, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant was pressing for a major pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah, as the Lebanese militia was Israel's most potent immediate threat. The Biden administration has made clear U.S. opposition and at least postponed such operations.
Once Israeli forces moved south through Gaza and decimated the Hamas brigades with relative ease, Israeli thinking turned north again relatively quickly. Hezbollah's main threat to Israel is its large arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles and rockets, many of which have precision guidance capabilities and can strike anywhere within Israel. It could possibly overwhelm Iron Dome and other Israeli anti-missile defense systems.
Since October 7, Israel has evacuated approximately 80,000 citizens from communities in the north (and an equal number of Lebanese people migrated from towns and villages in the south). The government began insisting that it could not safely and securely return home unless Hezbollah's elite Radwan special forces were permanently relocated some 29 miles north of the border area.
Charbel Maro/CNN
Kafr Qira is a largely deserted town in southern Lebanon that has been the brunt of Israeli airstrikes in a series of exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah.
However, in my assessment, no matter what Hezbollah says about the force, Radwan's forces do not appear ready or capable of launching a meaningful large-scale ground invasion into northern Israel. Although it is understandable that Israel is concerned about the possibility of a dangerous invasion by Radwan, the main purpose of this unit is to maintain Hezbollah's private army and maintain Hezbollah's claim that it is defending southern Lebanon and Lebanon. Ultimately, it is to justify their own foreign policy. border area with Israel. Therefore, one must question Israel's motives.
Since October 7, Hezbollah has made it clear in both words and deeds that it does not currently desire a broader war with Israel, despite continued tit-for-tat attacks with Iranian support. , the Lebanese group has no intention of simply surrendering. The group was formed and agreed to major concessions to withdraw elite fighters from its southern region, its heartland.
The real target of Israeli war hawks in Lebanon is Hezbollah's missile, rocket, and drone arsenal, which they aim to damage and degrade while dealing a humiliating blow to their most powerful immediate enemy. I hope.
Israeli leaders also made the mistake of believing that a possible new war in Lebanon would ultimately result in a major victory for the Israelis, a “victory” that could never have been won in Gaza under any scenario. I'm sure you're hoping for it.
Hussein Ibish
Israeli leaders also made the mistake of believing that a possible new war in Lebanon would ultimately result in a major victory for the Israelis, a “victory” that could never have been won in Gaza under any scenario. I'm sure you're hoping for it. Hezbollah is a far more conventional force than Hamas. The damage to military and other capabilities would be easily quantified, and if the costs were acceptable, it would likely be warmly applauded within Israel. And Israel would not face the problem of a prolonged reoccupation of additional Arab territory.
In the process, Israeli leaders hope that Iran's regional trump card will be significantly weakened. But with each new Israeli engagement with Hezbollah, the group proves far more capable than expected, and Israelis may come to regret another avoidable adventure in Lebanon.
But for the Biden administration, this scenario is a nightmare. One of the main purposes of Washington's bear-hug support to Israel in Gaza was to put the United States in a position to not only contain its enemies but also restrain its friends in combat, to prevent a catastrophic regional conflict. .
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Following the recent exchange of fire with Iran, it may be up to the administration, and even President Joe Biden personally, to prevent Israel from proceeding with the large-scale attack it is threatening in Lebanon.
If this were to happen, America's primary objective regarding the Gaza war, conflict containment, would be defeated not by Washington's enemies but, ironically, by its closest regional partners.
