Elections are an expensive business. But it doesn't cost much to claim that the only reason for a narrow loss was voter fraud. Former President Donald Trump told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel earlier this month when asked if he would concede if President Joe Biden is re-elected: “If everything is honest, I would be happy to accept the outcome.'' ” he said. “If not, we must fight for our country’s rights.”
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Call this “President Trump's election savings theory.” Trump supporters recently told NBC News, “They are not ready to accept Biden's victory as legitimate and could trigger a new presidential election in which a large portion of the population refuses to believe the results.” “There could be potential destabilizing repercussions.” The situation is especially dangerous for the country given that President Trump is stoking expectations for his success while simultaneously refusing to commit resources to a Republican victory.
Call this “President Trump's election savings theory.”
Consider for a moment that by the end of the 2024 election cycle, political campaigns are expected to spend more than $10 billion on advertising alone. This doesn't take into account the door-knocking, voting, office-setting, and other expenses associated with running for office. The Republican National Committee's ongoing funding shortfall should be a concern for those hoping for a red wave this fall, as national parties typically help cover some of the costs for states and localities across the country. is.
But the money raised by Republicans doesn't necessarily go to state-level campaigns, or even to Trump's own re-election efforts. The Washington Post reported on Friday that President Trump “told RNC leaders to focus on election security rather than on-the-ground programs, as he personally wants to motivate voters to vote in the fall.” Because I believe we can do it.” The emphasis on election security is itself problematic given the complete lack of evidence to support President Trump's claims that voter fraud ruined the 2020 election. As I have argued before, the problem Republicans face in terms of winning the election is not “election security” but Trump himself.
But his campaign and the RNC, now run by Trump's staunch allies and their families, are reportedly asking potential recruits whether they believe the 2020 election was stolen. The US government is also working to run a “lean” campaign with fewer resources. For example, the Post reported that the campaign “has decided not to hire separate political, communications and research staff for the campaign and the KMT.” While this sounds like a potentially smart cost-cutting measure, it also raises the question of whether down-ballot races will be prioritized compared to the Trump operation.
This is a real concern because the RNC has traditionally cared about candidates up and down the polls in states across the country. Further raising eyebrows, therefore, is the commission's decision to rescind its previous plans to step up its activities nationwide in the run-up to the general election. There are concerns within state-level political parties that these efforts could be scuttled in favor of the presidential election. And that could be a serious problem for Republicans in states like Arizona and Georgia, where this year's results could be even closer than in 2020.
Georgia's original RNC plan, reviewed by The Washington Post, called for 12 regional field directors to be hired in April and field directors by the end of May, in addition to eventually opening 20 offices and a community center in College Park. It was required to hire 40 organizers. , a mostly black suburb of Atlanta. Arizona had slots for six regional field directors, seven offices, and 23 field organizers by the end of May. Party leaders drafted similar roadmaps for other battleground states before Ronna McDaniel took over.
This is not to say that the RNC is definitely counting on cries of voter fraud and the resulting chaos as its main strategy for victory in the fall. There's still time for Republicans to start investing in battleground states heading into November. And, as the failure to sway Republican governors and secretaries of state in 2020 showed, blaming election losses on voter fraud is a recipe for fraud when everyone is on the same page. only works.
When it comes to fraud, what Trump is addressing here is very basic.
But tell that to the 46% of Republicans who have little or no faith that presidential votes in 2024 will be accurately counted, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll conducted last year. Or the growing list of top Republicans who have recently sidestepped the issue when asked whether they would accept the 2024 election results. (It's worth noting that this strategy is only cheap if it's successful. Many pro-Trump lawyers who defended Trump's lies in 2020 were fined heavily or disbarred.) Several people have also been charged with the crime, including the RNC's new election integrity director.
When it comes to fraud, what Trump is addressing here is very basic. He's still trying to raise money for his campaign, begging big-spending billionaires to pad his quickly dwindling coffers. He has attended rallies and urged fans to reject any defeat, saying he could not have lost without massive voter fraud. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is siphoning off money that would have gone to Republican campaigns for legal fees so he doesn't have to pay for it himself. What we have unfolding is a conspiracy of cheapskates to destroy faith in democracy for more than just saving a few dollars (though, to be fair, it's more than just a few dollars). The real question is whether the Republican leadership will follow this strategy again this time.
