Despite this calculation, my experience is that unless frightened candidates are consistently given what they want to hear, Democrats and Republicans will stay home in November. It's easy to get sold on that idea. A phone call from the head of a religious, civil rights, or labor organization (often referred to as an “organization”) can spark fear during a campaign. A case in point is a New York Times article this winter in which black pastors warned the White House that President Biden's war policies in Gaza could jeopardize his reelection. Perhaps the concerns may be justified if Biden is running against a popular centrist opponent. But the final months of the campaign will see a frenzied effort to get out the vote, as the Democratic base faces Trump in the fall election, with Trump in the dark. I don't think so. A limo runs down Pennsylvania Avenue. The reality is that swing voters in battleground states, angered by immigration, inflation, purportedly extreme weather policies, and weakness on foreign relations, are likely to return Trump to the presidency if they don't. It became dull.
Consider the electoral history of the Democratic Party. Joe Biden won 81% of the vote in February's Michigan Democratic presidential primary. He won about the same percentage of votes in the Colorado, Texas, and Massachusetts primaries, not far behind other incumbent presidents with poor employment ratings. Nevertheless, liberal commentators and activists have for months pointed to Michigan's protest vote as evidence that Biden is doomed to fail in November over his stance on Israel. However, Michigan is hardly a repeat of the 1968 New Hampshire primary that effectively ended Lyndon Johnson's re-election bid, with Eugene McCarthy getting 42% of the vote and a truly massive protest movement. became.
I believe most of the 101,000 “uncommitted” votes Biden lost in Michigan will eventually come back because they have nowhere else to go. And the threat posed by Mr. Trump will become clearer and scarier over the next six months. But all that aside, there are even bigger opportunities for Biden if he looks in a different direction. Trump lost the Michigan Republican primary to Nikki Haley by about 300,000 votes. These people are among the moderates, and many of them could be persuaded to vote for Biden if he tweaks his message to appeal to them. And don't forget to double. Persuading 300,000 Republicans across party lines is equivalent to getting 600,000 Democrats to vote. The same calculation applies to other battleground states. In Pennsylvania, 158,000 people voted for Haley over Trump in the Republican primary, even though she withdrew seven weeks ago.
Unfortunately, Mr. Biden has not appealed to moderate voters with his policy ideas or strong campaign message. He has so far shown no clear evidence of attracting large numbers of swing voters in battleground states. These swing voters want fiscal restraint that doesn't involve raising taxes, climate change policies that give people choice in cars and fuel, and immigration policies that close borders but care for people here. A balanced budget remains one of the only strong policies that swing voters and other voters want. Bill Clinton's efforts to balance the budget sparked a revolution, delivering an 8-point victory over third-party candidates in 1996 and boosting the president's approval rating to more than 70 percent. Instead of pivoting as he spoke to the 32 million people who watched the State of the Union address, Mr. We doubled down on our strategy. Further expansion of giveaways and social programs despite a deficit of over $1.1 trillion. The results disappeared quickly.
The Biden campaign has fundamentally miscalculated on Israel. I believe that Haley voters are strongly pro-defense, who unconditionally support an alliance with Israel, and they want a president who will put maximum pressure on Hamas to release the hostages. Biden's initial instincts on Israel were both good policy and good politics, as by pandering to voters in his base without choice, Biden is pushing the Haley vote over Trump. 84% of independents support Israel over Hamas in the conflict, and 63% think a ceasefire should only take place after the hostages are released. The more Biden softens his support for Israel and panders to the left, the weaker he looks and the lower his reputation for foreign policy falls. Rather than definitively distance himself from Israel, Biden should allow Israel to enter Rafah and find a plan with sufficient precautions for the civilian population of Rafah that the American president can support. be.
