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Donald J. Savoie is the Canada Research Chair in Public Administration and Governance at the University of Moncton.
The last thing Canada wants is another crisis of national unity. However, there are unidentified forces shaping these crises, which are difficult to address.
If polls are to be believed, Canada will have a new government in Ottawa within a year. It will be chaired by someone who is not from Quebec, which in itself will change the dynamics of the national unity debate. Five Quebec premiers have held power in Ottawa for 47 of the past 56 years. New Canadians add a different dynamic to Canadian politics and the discussion of national unity. Their point of reference is not to historical, regional, or linguistic grievances, but to the countries they left behind and the promise of new beginnings.
Quebec politics is also taking a new shape. Federalist voices are rarely heard in Quebec's parliament. Quebec's challenge is to chip away at the federal government's jurisdiction and secure more autonomy. Quebec has also been quick and flexible in adhering to the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in recent years, but the rest of Canada, including leaders of all federal political parties, has shrugged their shoulders.
The impending crisis of national unity extends beyond Quebec's place in the Canadian family, and therein lies the problem. Canadians have no intention of restarting the constitution or acceding to Quebec's new demands. Canadians are grappling with pressing and seemingly intractable public policy challenges, including inflation, housing supply, declining productivity, and the never-ending growth of the federal government. Every region has its own grievances and reasons to redefine its place in the Canadian family. Their focus is on their own agenda, not Quebec.
Western Canada maintains that the Ottawa-Ontario-Quebec triumvirate has never understood its challenges and has not given it the political weight it deserves to match its economic contributions to Canada. There's a reason. Atlantic Canada does not have much political or economic influence and sits on the sidelines, hoping for the best, with its role in future national unification discussions unclear. Unlike in the past, Ontario is increasingly inward looking at its own economic and public policy challenges. Going back nearly 35 years, Ontario's premiers have preferred to talk about a fair federal system of provinces rather than the glue that holds Canada together.
This suits Quebec sovereigntists perfectly. This allows it to be argued that the rest of Canada is becoming insensitive to Quebec's aspirations. And if the polls are accurate, Quebec sovereignty will likely strengthen its presence in Canada's parliament after the next national election, arguing that Canada is no longer working for Quebec. Regarding the upcoming Quebec provincial election, recent opinion polls show that the Parti Québécois leads in voting intentions and is poised to win a majority government.
Who will represent Canada the next time a unity crisis occurs? In 1995, 150,000 Canadians from outside Quebec traveled to Montreal to show their love for Canada, including Quebec. Where will the new Captain Canada lead the march? Canada no longer has provincial premiers like John Roberts, David Peterson and Alan Blakeney who are willing to go beyond provincial borders and talk about what's good for Canada. Ottawa is supposed to best manage the disagreement by striking individual agreements on the spot with the prime minister.
Canadians have seen national unity crises emerge periodically, such as in the 1995 Quebec referendum, where the results were too close for comfort. Immediate is different. Because it comes under cover of darkness, and there is little appetite among Canadians to spend the time or energy to understand it, let alone deal with it. Because all regions are unhappy with Ottawa. Because the federal government has no idea that legitimate grievances continue to go unaddressed in Western Canada. And right now, there are very few voices willing to speak on behalf of Canadian unity.
No matter how much we want to, we cannot ignore the challenges of national unity that loom for Canada. We can prepare to deal with it head-on, or we can let it sneak in and struggle for a solution. The time has come for Canada's national political parties to address this issue in their campaign pledges ahead of the next general election. These exist in all communities and are a legitimate means of involving Canadians from all regions in discussions about how Canada's future should be shaped. Rather than one region or one party leader, they are in a position to bring together different communities and different regions to sort out differences, examine prejudice, and reach compromises that benefit Canada. If political parties cannot play this role, who can?
