We once had long debates about American exceptionalism, about whether our country was an outlier among nations, and I thought the majority of the evidence suggested that it was. But today our political attitudes are just ordinary. Far from standing out as a champion of democracy, a nation that welcomes immigrants, and an eternally young country animated by belief in the American Dream, America is now in the same mood as almost every other country, a mood that is moody and populist.
For example, earlier this year, the polling firm Ipsos released a report based on interviews it conducted in November and December with 20,630 adults in 28 countries, including South Africa, Indonesia, Brazil and Germany. Americans' responses to the question were, well, average.
Our pessimism is about average: About 59 percent of Americans say they think their country is in decline, compared with 58 percent across the 28 countries. Sixty percent of Americans agree that “the system is broken,” compared with 61 percent of the global sample.
Our hostility toward elites is about average: 69% of Americans agree that “political and economic elites don't care about hard-working people,” compared with 67% across all 28 countries. 63% of Americans agree that “experts in this country don't understand the lives of people like me,” compared with 62% globally.
Americans are pretty average when it comes to authoritarian tendencies: 66% of Americans say “we need a strong leader to take back the country from the rich and powerful,” compared with 63% across all 28 countries. Forty percent of Americans think we need a strong leader who will “break the rules,” just below the 49% who think so globally.
These results reveal an extremely favorable political climate for right-wing populists in the United States and around the world. This is important because this is a decision year, with at least 64 countries holding national elections. Populism has emerged as a major global movement.
Populists have gained strength in every election this year. Incumbent populist governments have been or are facing reelection in India, Indonesia and Mexico. Populist parties have thrived in Portugal, Slovakia and the Netherlands, where far-right leader Geert Wilders shocked the world by coming to power at the head of his Party for Freedom.
Europe's elites are preparing for next month's European Parliament elections, which, if opinion polls are to be believed, will see the European Parliament move sharply to the right, endangering current policies on climate change and Ukraine. Experts predict that anti-European populist parties are likely to come out on top in the European Parliament elections in nine countries: France, Italy, Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia. In nine other countries, including Germany and Spain, anti-European populist parties are likely to come second or third.
And, of course, Donald Trump has a small but steady lead in America's battleground states.
If anything, the evidence suggests the momentum is still on the populist side. Trump appears to be widening his lead among working-class voters. In Europe, populists have strong support among young people as well as the elderly and disillusioned. One survey found that 41% of European voters aged 18-35 have moved to the right or far right. In the recent Portuguese election, young voters flocked to the right-wing populist Chega (Enough) party, while almost half of the support for the rival Socialist party came from voters over 65.
The clear lesson is that it would be a mistake to analyze the presidential election solely from an American perspective: both President Biden and President Trump are at the mercy of global events beyond their control.
These trends also suggest that we may be in one of the seminal years in world history, when events in different countries seemed to influence each other, setting off massive chain reactions that brought similar changes to different countries, shifting global consciousness, such as in 1848 or 1989.
Of course, the key difference between those years and 2024 is that during those early critical moments the world experienced an expansion of freedom, the spread of democracy, and the advancement of liberal values. This year, all of this is likely to see a major setback.
Is there a way to fight back against the tide of populism? Of course there is, but it starts with the humble recognition that populism's underlying ideas have been decades in the making and are now widespread across the globe. Rebuilding public trust will likely have to be done on the ground, from below. In terms of what mainstream candidates should do in this year's election, there's no better advice than this one from Hoover Institution scholar Larry Diamond, who wrote in The American Interest in 2020:
Don't try to polarize the polarizers: lashing out at populists only mobilizes their supporters and makes you appear part of the hated establishment.
Reach out to those among his supporters who have doubts. Don't question or belittle their character, appeal to their concerns and positive dreams.
Stop insulting each other, he will make you lose out and make you feel less valuable.
Build an issue-packed campaign. Ipsos research shows that even people who dislike the system crave programs that create jobs and improve education, health care and public safety. “Offer substantive, practical, non-ideological policy proposals,” says Diamond.
Don't give the populists a monopoly on patriotism. Offer liberal forms of national pride that give people a sense of belonging despite their differences.
Don't be boring. The fight for attention is relentless. Don't let your advisors make your candidates predictable, unremarkable and safe.
This year's elections are likely to be won by advocates of change. Populists promise to overturn the system. Liberals need to make the case for comprehensive, constructive change to the system.
