Black voters will not only be a driving force in the 2024 election, they will likely be a driving force. In a recent poll, about 20% of black voters said they would probably vote for Donald Trump if the election were held today, the highest level of black support for a Republican presidential candidate since the civil rights era. Another 8% said they would not vote at all.
Democratic campaign officials are right to be worried, but President Biden still has time to regain lost ground, and one way to do that is by speaking to Black Americans, especially young Black voters, about a hidden issue: the climate crisis.
As an environmental and climate researcher, I've noticed that despite the growing threat of climate change, politicians tend to downplay the crisis when reaching out to Black communities. Democratic strategists seem to view climate change as a political issue that matters only to white liberal elites, and assume that other groups, like Black voters, are unaware of or unconcerned about climate change.
The reality is that Black Americans are increasingly concerned about climate change.
In an April CBS News poll, 88% of black adults said it was “somewhat” or “very important.” This is no surprise. The hardest hits from climate change, from heat waves to major floods, have already fallen disproportionately on black communities. And that's starting to show up in their political priorities. A Brookings Institution poll last September showed that climate change is now a bigger political concern for black Americans than abortion or the state of democracy.
If Democrats really want to win back the support they've lost in these communities, they should start by telling voters what the climate crisis means to them. Heat waves and floods have caused higher energy bills and damaged homes in Democratic strongholds like Cleveland, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. If Biden spoke regularly about these issues and promised to create a forum for Black Americans to discuss climate with government officials, his administration could win back some of the credibility they've lost.
For starters, Biden could focus more on young black people who are passionate about climate change. Until his commencement speech at Morehouse College on May 19, the president largely refrained from engaging directly with young black people during his campaign. When speaking to black voters, climate change was often little more than a footnote, mentioned in a laundry list of policies alongside the economy, abortion, and voting rights. During his Morehouse speech, his only explicit reference to the climate crisis was in one line: “Listen to a generation that wants communities free of gun violence, a planet free of the climate crisis, and show them the power to change the world.”
There's a better way to talk about this issue, one that might inspire black voters to turn out in November's presidential election: not with empty pleas for solutions to the global climate crisis, but with pointed messaging tailored specifically to young black Americans, emphasizing the Biden administration's investments in clean energy hubs, green workforce development, tax credits for home improvement measures, and local grants. Biden's Inflation-Breaking Act allocates about $2 billion for local-level climate justice initiatives, such as grants for green technologies and mitigating health risks from heat and pollution that have ravaged black communities, with more funds waiting to be allocated.
Biden has spoken about this at some length. At a recent campaign event in Detroit, he told the crowd, “We're making the biggest investment in climate ever, including the biggest action ever on environmental justice. Every child in America has the right to breathe clean air,” and at an event with donors in Chicago, he said, “We've made the biggest investment in climate ever. Ever, ever, ever.”
But somehow, that hasn't gotten through to rank-and-file voters. In a recent national poll, 56% of black voters said they hadn't heard “very much” or “at all” about Biden's accomplishments on climate change. This needs to change.
Historically, Democrats have sought to win over black voters by promising to lower health care costs, help small businesses, strengthen the child tax credit, and protect voting rights. When it came time for big, strategic long-term investments in job creation, infrastructure, housing, schools, and more, Democrats have often relented. What's needed now is continued attention and support to win back this important group.
This election could come down to a few thousand votes in a few key states, and if a renewed focus on climate change can help boost turnout among black voters in, say, Detroit or Philadelphia, it's worth a try.
Black Americans’ longtime loyalty to the Democratic Party was born out of a desire to be partners in the country’s future, not just occasional beneficiaries. But polls suggest their patience with Democrats’ election-year outreach has finally reached its limits. Biden must make his investment in himself count by supporting Black Americans’ future. Given what’s at stake for young Black Americans as the climate crisis accelerates in the coming years, 2024 may be Democrats’ best and last chance to take the lead on climate justice, rather than playing catch-up again for the next generation of Black Americans.
Jerrell Ezell is a Fulbright Scholar and Assistant Professor of Community Health Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley, where he studies environmental politics and race.
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