Editor's note: CNN political analyst Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public policy at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of 25 books, including the upcoming “Our Nation at Risk: Election Integrity as a National Security Issue.” Follow him on Twitter. Julian ZelizerThe opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. See more opinions on CNN.
CNN —
Former President Donald Trump showed little remorse Friday after a Manhattan jury found him guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign.
Nearly a decade after descending the escalators of Trump Tower to announce his presidential candidacy in 2015, Trump once again took center stage at his namesake building on Fifth Avenue. “If they can do this to me, they can do this to anybody,” he warned. Trump also baselessly slammed “Biden and his aides,” called the trial a “rigged trial” and declared himself “a very innocent man.” He also branded the presiding judge, Judge Juan Marchand, as “an angel who seems like an angel but is actually [is] The devil.”
Whatever Trump's case, the guilty verdict was historic. Trump became the first former president to be convicted of a criminal charge. Trump will no doubt appeal, but he will continue to campaign in 2024 as a felon. The American people have seen Trump evade responsibility many times, but this time the justice system did not collapse. Trump's usual tactics of delay, obstruction, intimidation and subterfuge did not work. Given all the attacks on democracy and the rule of law in recent years, this is a moment that should never be taken lightly.
But the political implications of this verdict are still unclear. A big question remains: Will a guilty verdict shake up the current political dynamics of the 2024 election? The short answer is: it's too early to tell. After all, the polls so far have been based on hypothetical situations that have never happened before in American history.
Given the immediate reaction from Republicans and what we already know about Trump, it's entirely possible that a conviction would have little impact on voters.
Over the past 24 hours, Republicans have lined up faster than kids for an ice cream truck to discredit the judicial process and show their support for Trump. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida argued that the trial was “held by a judge who openly supports Biden.” Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas quipped that Marchand “should have worn his Biden campaign hat while sitting on the bench.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, always focused on partisan power, has said he will support Trump in the 2024 election and wrote that the trial “should never have been brought in the first place.”
Republican support was so strong that they blasted former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican who is likely to win Maryland's vacant Senate seat, when he urged voters to “respect” the ruling. Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita even said that Hogan's campaign was over.
Of course, the Trump campaign went into fundraising mode, reportedly raising more than $34 million in the hours after the guilty verdict. The Trump National Committee wasted no time in sending out a message to its supporters: “My friends, is this the end of America? I was just convicted in a rigged political witch hunt trial. I did nothing wrong! They searched my house, arrested me, took my mug shot, and now they've convicted me!” Meanwhile, Trump himself was at a fundraiser in Manhattan on Thursday attended by Republican donors including Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman.
It should not be forgotten that the Republican Party's support for Trump has already weathered many “tipping points” that would have destroyed politicians in earlier eras. Trump was impeached twice, became president after one term, and tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election. He has been indicted on three other criminal counts (Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges). He was also convicted of defamation in a civil lawsuit brought by author E. Jean Carroll and ordered to pay tens of millions of dollars in damages. Many of his associates have been convicted of wrongdoing over the years (see Paul Manafort), but the Republican Party has never abandoned him. He is seen as the 2024 Republican nominee, and polls show him slightly ahead of President Joe Biden in most battleground states.
The biggest question for Trump is how this will affect moderates and independents, and whether a conviction on Nov. 5 would put off a significant number of them. Moreover, a conviction could energize some Democrats who have been reluctant to support Biden.
Of course, the impact may be diluted if the ruling emboldens the Republican Party. While moderates may be disgusted, some Republicans may be more determined than ever to mobilize, donate and vote for their supposedly persecuted leader. Of course, some independents may also be influenced by these arguments and cynically view a vote for Trump as a vote for law and order.
Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter
As things stand, Trump and his supporters seem in a good position to twist the verdict. Biden later countered that Trump's reaction was “reckless.” “It's irresponsible to say it's fraudulent because you don't like the verdict,” he added. Biden spokesman Michael Tyler took a more forceful stance, saying, “America is in disarray, in despair, and has just witnessed a defeated Donald Trump narrate an endless string of his own personal grievances and lies about our justice system, bringing to the clear conclusion for all who watched that this man cannot be president of the United States.”
The Biden campaign is also fundraising on the ruling, but the president and many Democrats may be cautious about saying too much about it, lest they play into Republican accusations that this is all a political trial. But it also means Democrats could lose control of the narrative.
For those who believe this is a political “tipping point,” recent history suggests the verdict is still out.
