Remember the summer of 2016, when everyone from Republican Party insiders to President Barack Obama to liberal journalists were saying there was no way Donald Trump could win the presidential election?
Remember when the “Access Hollywood” tape was said to have ended Trump's 2016 campaign?
Remember when former FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III found evidence that Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 election, and was told that would be the end of Trump's presidency?
Remember, January 6th, 2021, will be the day that ends President Trump's political career in ignominy?
It's understandable if Democrats are beginning to feel like Wile E. Coyote, that Trump has the Road Runner-like ability to get away with it every time, no matter how dire the situation may seem. Scandals that would devastate other politicians barely damaged Trump, and he seemed immune to the consequences of the political world. Every time he survived, it only strengthened the impression that he was invincible.
USA Today attempted to keep track of the number of lawsuits in which Trump and his companies have been involved, either as plaintiff or defendant. The number is 4,095. Trump lost, but few seem to have changed his fate, politically or otherwise, even when a civil jury in E. Jean Carroll's defamation suit found Trump guilty of defaming Carroll as well as sexually abusing her.
Follow this author Jim Geraghty's opinion
Trump, the kind of guy who always seems to be figuring out how to get away with it, had more fun with Teflon than John Gotti and Ronald Reagan combined. The phenomenon even seemed to surprise Trump himself, joking awkwardly in January 2016 that “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and not lose any voters. You know what? It's unbelievable.”
But in light of Thursday's ruling, Trump shouldn't head down to Fifth Avenue with a gun in hand (indeed, as a convicted felon, he can no longer own a gun).
Late in the afternoon in a Manhattan courtroom, Trump's legendary streak of good luck and Houdini-like ability to escape the consequences of his actions came to an end. It is certainly possible that Trump's conviction can be overturned. Trump will argue that he never received a fair trial in Manhattan and that a conviction required a special application of the law that constituted a felony. It is rather odd that Trump's conviction was based in large part on the testimony of notoriously shady former aide Michael Cohen.
Conversely, if you have spent decades building a reputation as a notorious, shameless, and brazen liar, you shouldn't be surprised if a jury concludes that you are the kind of person who would falsify business records.
Falsifying business records to hide hush money to Stormy Daniels is not the worst, biggest, or most significant thing Trump has ever done. Ask your typical Trump critic to name his most heinous, um, deplorable acts, and you're unlikely to hear them mention the acts that led to his conviction.
But this week, something crucial changed. All Trump needed was one juror to disagree and for a mistrial. All it took was one juror who felt that this was truly a political witch hunt, that the prosecution witnesses were not credible, or that the government had not proven that Trump knew all the details. Every time, someone has saved Trump: NBC gave him a primetime reality show, banks offered him loans on generous terms, Senate Republicans refused to convict him in an impeachment trial, plaintiffs agreed to out-of-court settlements, opponents collapsed, stumbled, or lost their courage. The 45th president has lived one of the luckiest lives in American history.
But Trump's luck, his charm, his brazen shamelessness, his expensive lawyers and his money have all been for naught, at least for now.
And Democrats got the headline they wanted: “Donald Trump, Convicted Felon.” It will no doubt appear in President Biden's ads from now until November. Will it affect the election? It's easy to be skeptical. An NBC News poll released in February found that the small percentage of voters who said a conviction would change their vote in 2024 “have an overwhelmingly unfavorable opinion of Biden and also approve of a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points.” It's these voters who will likely switch back to Trump by November.
