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Elon Musk's followers see him as a Steve Jobs-like messianic figure with perception-warping powers, but his ambitions tend to clash with reality.
Musk has been promising to develop self-driving cars for years, long before Tesla's (TSLA) recent push into robotaxis, a startling claim that has never materialized.
Now that shareholders have approved a big pay package for Tesla's CEO, investors are turning their attention to the robot taxis the company plans to unveil in August.
Tesla's focus on a fleet of self-driving cars is nothing new, but what has changed since Musk began predicting self-driving cars is that the challenges of driverless technology have become more apparent.
On the same day that Tesla confirmed that voting shareholders had supported Musk, Alphabet's (GOOG) Waymo announced a recall of 672 of its self-driving cars to reduce the chances of them crashing into utility poles.
General Motors said last week it would invest an additional $850 million in its self-driving subsidiary Cruise to cover costs after a self-driving car struck and dragged a pedestrian, halting its robotaxi service.
Companies focused on self-driving cars are still grappling with fundamental problems, but Musk remains optimistic about a self-driving future for the world's most valuable automaker.
Investors are waiting for Musk to reveal more details about his robotaxi plan at a presentation scheduled for August 8, but it would be a mistake to think that a lackluster presentation will doom Tesla.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is scheduled to announce new details about the robotaxi on Aug. 8. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Norouzi, File) (AP)
As with previous events and investor calls, the details matter less than the story Musk is telling, the loyalty of his fan base and the positive reactions from analysts who support the bull case.
What the August show reveals about the technological advances of the robotaxi concept is largely beside the point: Musk's insistence on positioning Tesla as more than a company selling electric vehicles is second only to his ability to convince people to keep it that way.
Musk’s AI strategy
At Tesla's annual shareholder event, Musk told investors the EV market is “tough.”
Tesla isn't the only company facing an EV setback: With demand cooling and its inability to rely on hybrids or traditional gasoline-powered vehicles, the company stands to feel the brunt of the economic slowdown.
But Musk has again turned to the source of grandiose promises to excite his supporters.
“We're working on Tesla Master Plan 4. It's going to be epic.” Musk said: He posted on his social media platform X on Monday.
The story continues
A look back at Tesla's three previous plans — to mass-produce EVs and lay the foundation for global electrification — reveals a history of ambitious and provocative proposals.
Of course, as with most of Musk's promises, some of the details have yet to come to fruition, such as his 2016 proposal to make cars earn you money when you're not using them.
But reaching for the stars and the moon is a victory in itself, and Tesla staunch supporters point out, perhaps justifiably, that by setting a “stretch goal,” Musk has galvanized the entire auto industry to aggressively pursue EVs and move society forward, even if Tesla's core EV business is under pressure at the moment.
At Tesla's shareholder meeting this month, Musk also suggested the company's humanoid robot, Optimus Prime, could be the next big thing.
“I think Optimus will have a market cap in the $25 trillion range. It's a huge amount of work to get there, but we're moving very fast down that path,” Musk said in a shareholder presentation.
“We're not just beginning a new chapter for Tesla, we're writing a new book,” Musk said.
Not the first time, and probably not the last.
Hamza Shaaban is a reporter covering markets and economics for Yahoo Finance. Follow Hamza on Twitter. translation:.
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