The ongoing election campaigns in France, the UK and the US are the latest examples of the shortcomings of centrist politics. The big question is whether there are alternatives that can thwart the rise of right-wing, nationalist politics and deliver positive policy outcomes.
Centrist politics refers to the style of figures such as Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Labour prime ministerial candidate Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who are in many ways following in the ideological footsteps of former US presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and former British prime minister Tony Blair.
This centrism has three main tenets. The defining tenet (at least in determining how these politicians and parties actually act) is that they seek to balance the interests of ordinary workers with those of the wealthy and corporations. These politicians generally allow capitalism to function with few constraints, hoping to maximize economic growth and redistribute the profits. This contrasts with their national leftists, who are more closely tied to labor unions and quite hostile to the wealthy (such as Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont), and with conservatives who are even more closely tied to corporations (such as Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky).
The second belief is support for multiculturalism (albeit sometimes modestly). Politicians of this type are generally more supportive of gay, lesbian and transgender rights, as well as the rights of ethnic and religious minorities, than are conservatives.
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The third tenet is that they have no fixed ideology, other than being somewhat business-friendly and multicultural. Parties and politicians in this form often rely on polls and public opinion to decide their positions. Starmer's Labour Party has abandoned some of its past progressive positions. It has also not allowed some prominent left-wing politicians, including Jeremy Corbyn, the party's prime ministerial candidate in 2019, to run under the party's banner. Labour's moves are similar to the rightward shift of the US Democratic Party in the 1990s.
These countries, parties and political leaders differ in important ways, but they also share strategies. In the 1990s, Clinton and Blair openly admitted to exchanging ideas. Macron modelled his 2017 campaign on Obama's 2008 one, and Obama took the highly unusual step of endorsing Macron. Labour leaders are studying Biden's 2020 victory to see whether there are lessons that can be applied to the UK.
Terms like “centre-left”, “neoliberal” or “Third Way” are sometimes used to describe this political approach. I use the word “centrism” because it is a relatively neutral and vague term.
This centrism has two clear advantages. First, it can be electorally successful. Clinton, Obama and Macron were all re-elected presidents. Labour won three elections under Prime Minister Blair's leadership. Opinion polls suggest Starmer and the Labour Party will win a landslide victory in the UK election on 4 July.
This short-term political success has implications: vague centrism maximizes a party's potential allies and minimizes hardline opponents. It is especially effective at appeasing the rich: Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and other ultra-rich people are pouring billions of dollars into supporting Biden, but they might not back Sanders or others more critical of the rich.
The second benefit of this approach is that it can lead to great policy outcomes. Biden's policies have helped create an economic boom and driven the U.S. unemployment rate to its lowest level ever. Biden and Macron have been staunch defenders of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion.
But the drawbacks of this approach increasingly overshadow its advantages. First, and most importantly, it has real policy flaws. An over-reliance on opinion polls means that these politicians and parties are only stop-gap allies of causes. They are especially prone to neglect the interests of minorities. Macron and Biden take anti-immigration positions that were previously considered right-wing.
In terms of economic policy, easing tensions with the wealthy is a real constraint. The wealthy tend to be more sceptical of increased government spending and tighter corporate regulation than the general public. As a result, centrist politicians, wary of incurring the wrath of the wealthy, often do not address serious income inequality and instead implement economic policies that ordinary people find unsatisfactory. Starmer reversed a plan for an income tax increase on the wealthy that Labour had previously supported. Macron raised France's retirement age from 62 to 64, despite massive nationwide protests against the measure.
While Biden is more liberal on the economy than past Democrats, he has abandoned many of the populist promises he made during the 2020 campaign, including creating a public health insurance program that most Americans would have access to if they wanted it.
Centrist politicians and parties often defend their adoption of cautious and conservative politics, arguing that this approach is the only way to prevent the rise of the far-right. But Obama was succeeded by Donald Trump. Marine Le Pen's National Rally grew significantly during Macron's term. In the midst of the Biden administration, the Republicans, who took control of the lower house two years ago, are the most extreme right-wing group to run the lower house in recent years. Despite being deeply unpopular, Republican candidate Biden is tying with Trump in opinion polls. In the European Union parliamentary elections earlier this month, far-right parties performed better than ever before.
Centrists often win when other parties govern so badly that they are effectively disqualified — American voters all but rejected Trump in the 2018 and 2020 elections — and dissatisfaction with the incumbent Conservatives is a key reason Labour is on its way to victory.
However, once in office, this centrism fails to build a strong base of support to stay in power. This style of politics appeals primarily to people (such as Bloomberg) who hold liberal views on gay rights and other cultural issues, are economically well-off, and are generally satisfied with the status quo. It does not satisfy culturally conservative voters or those who want politicians to enact meaningful change.
So what's the alternative to centrism? A powerful narrative that voters can relate to. The strength of far-right nationalist parties is that they tell a clear and compelling story, even if it's largely inaccurate. “Our country was doing well before all these changes happened, especially accepting immigrants who don't respect our culture, making boys more like girls and girls more like boys, and we have to go back to the basics,” they basically argue.
In contrast, centrist politicians seek to win on policies (often fairly bland policies) rather than on broader debate.
There are two narratives that suit the right. One is a populist narrative: “The rich and powerful are taking from ordinary people, and we're going to fix it.” This framework will appeal to centrist voters who tend to support higher taxes on the wealthy and expanded programs to help ordinary people. Mexico's Morena party dominates the country's politics with this approach.
Another alternative narrative is, “We want true freedom for all.” What has animated left- and center-leaning Americans in recent years is the murder of unarmed black men and the stripping away of abortion rights. It's unfortunate that Democrats have stuck to Biden economics instead of trying to turn the millions who protested the 2020 killing of George Floyd into some kind of political movement.
All is not lost: Biden can be re-elected. Le Pen's National Rally may not win as many seats as expected next month. Centre and left-wing parties together still hold far more seats in the European Parliament than nationalists.
But centrist leaders in the United States and Europe continue to be pressured by the far right, even as they increasingly adopt and legitimize far-right positions in order to win elections.
Reading the polls and staying in the political center seems like it would work. But it doesn't. I hope that those opposed to the far right come up with a new strategy before every country is run by Trump-esque politicians or Donald himself.
