French President Emmanuel Macron’s expected political failure in crucial parliamentary elections on Sunday could paralyze the country, weaken the president’s position internationally and overshadow his achievements as France prepares to capture the world’s attention as host of the Paris Olympics.
The youngest president in France’s history is known on the international stage for his tireless diplomatic efforts and pro-European efforts.
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Now, many are wondering how he will maintain control of the country given he lacks a majority in parliament and faces a divisive administration.
Macron, 46, is constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term in 2027 and faces an uphill battle to avoid becoming a lame duck.
Whatever the outcome of Sunday’s runoff election, it is not expected to be good news for Macron.
French media recently reported that an air of the end of the reign was in the air at the Elysee Palace.
Polls show Macron’s centrist coalition is headed for defeat in Sunday’s runoff after coming third in the first round.
Dominique Mossi, a Paris-based political analyst, told The Associated Press that it seemed the French wanted to punish the president with the first vote.
If the far-right National Rally party and its allies win a majority in parliament, the centrist president would find himself in the awkward position of having to work with an anti-immigration, nationalist prime minister.
Otherwise, Macron may have to find a way to form a functioning government, perhaps by proposing an agreement with his left-wing rivals.
In any case, he will no longer be able to implement his plan, based on pro-business policies aimed at revitalizing the French economy.
“We are in unknown worlds, unknown unknowns,” Mossi said, because coalition governments are not a French tradition.
Macron has been seen abroad as a key global figure known for his relentless diplomatic activism.
He has been deeply involved in the steps taken by Western countries to support Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022.
In the Middle East, France has promoted diplomatic efforts with Arab countries.
Earlier this year, Macron also laid out his vision for the European Union, calling on the 27-nation bloc to build its own strong defense and undertake major trade and economic reforms to compete with China and the United States.
The French constitution gives the president certain powers regarding foreign policy, European affairs and defense.
But the sharing of power with a prime minister from a rival party remains unclear and without the government’s support Macron’s role could be limited.
Macron was first elected in 2017, then a 39-year-old political neophyte, and enjoyed success.
The chancellor has passed new rules to make the labour market more flexible, making it harder for unemployed people to claim benefits, and has also given tax cuts to businesses to encourage employment.
Soon the Yellow Vest movement, an anti-government movement against social injustice, emerged and Macron was labelled a rich president, a man who is still seen by many as arrogant and out of touch with ordinary people.
His left-wing opponents accused him of destroying worker protections.
Macron argued that unemployment has fallen from over 10 percent to 7.5 percent today, and that France has been ranked as the most attractive European country for foreign investment in recent years.
Politically, centrist leaders have founded their own parties promising to do better than the mainstream left and right.
But now that too seems doomed to fail.
His call for early general elections has actually advanced two major forces: the far-right National Rally and a broad-based left-wing coalition including the Socialists, the Greens and the far-left Indomitable France.
Macron was re-elected for a second consecutive term in the 2022 presidential runoff election, defeating far-right rival Marine Le Pen. But he lost his parliamentary majority, even though his centrist coalition won the most seats in the National Assembly.
The prime minister then struggled to pass an unpopular plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, sparking months of mass protests and damaging his leadership.
Last year, riots erupted in hundreds of cities, towns and villages following the police shooting death of a teenager.
Macron’s own camp questioned the president’s political skills after he suddenly announced his decision last month to dissolve the National Assembly.
Bruno Le Maire, who served as finance minister for seven years, told France Interradio that the decision was creating concern, incomprehension and sometimes anger across the country and among French people.
Macron’s former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, accused him of killing the centrist majority.
The presidency is Macron’s first elected position.
In his 30s, Macron left a job as a banker at Rothschild Bank to become an economic adviser to Socialist President François Hollande, working alongside him in the presidential palace for two years.
He then served as economy minister in the Hollande government from 2014 to 2016, pushing through a series of measures including expanding Sunday and evening store openings and opening up regulated sectors of the economy. He left the Socialist government and ran as a presidential candidate.
Mr Macron’s fate may be on the agenda at next week’s NATO summit in Washington, where world leaders will meet Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer.
“The paradox is that after the last two elections in the UK and France, we will have more UK and less France at the NATO summit,” Mossi said. The strongest personality will be the new UK prime minister. And the weakest personality will be the French president.
