Editor's note: Stephen Craven is a former U.S. commercial diplomat and trade negotiator with the U.S. Department of Commerce, where he negotiated international agreements for the United States on export subsidies, product standards, and more, and worked on trade in Asia, Europe, and the Americas. We have been negotiating. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinions on CNN.
CNN —
Inflation had fallen significantly over the past 18 months before rising in March. But there's a big reason why Americans don't recognize that fact. That means Americans have to eat.
Stephen Craven
Stephen Craven
Food prices in the United States have been rising even before the coronavirus pandemic. From 2019 he rose 25% between 2023 and 2023. The cost of eating out rose even faster. So even though wage growth is outpacing inflation, Americans at Kroger and Wendy's are still feeling the shock.
Americans want relief. But former President Donald Trump and his policies are not the answer. Trump will raise food costs.
President Trump's proposed tariffs would cause immediate damage. He called for a basic 10% tariff on all imported goods. Given that the United States imports 15% of its food supply (including nearly all coffee and cocoa, 60% of fresh fruit, and nearly 40% of fresh vegetables), the 10% tariff would be a major This will result in increased costs for some food products. An important imported product.
After all, the importer will definitely pass on that cost to the consumer, unless there is a reason for the consumer to eat that cost themselves. Since domestic suppliers are unlikely to be able to lower prices any time soon (for example, America's limited coffee plantations do not come close to producing as much coffee as Americans drink), consumers will be forced to pay more. There is a high possibility that you will bear the burden.
In Trump's America, going to the produce section, candy store, or coffee shop will likely cost you money. You can check the origin of any product. For foreign products, prices are likely to rise if Trump becomes president.
Charlie Tribalew/AFP/Getty Images
Americans want lower food prices. This woman shops in a Manhattan supermarket in January.
Unfortunately, President Joe Biden has adopted many of the inflationary tariffs on Chinese goods that President Trump imposed in his first term, even though he has not enacted universal tariffs like President Trump is proposing. is maintained. Biden has reasons to keep these tariffs in place, including China's persistent “dumping,” exporting products at lower prices than China charges, and national security concerns. There is no question that tariffs raise the price to pay.
Meanwhile, President Trump's argument for broad tariffs is that they will protect American producers and businesses. But American farmers don't need protection, and the resulting trade war will inflict severe economic damage on them. America's agricultural industry is already the strongest in the world. We export more food than any other country. It produces more food than every country except China and India (countries with more than four times the population). American farms are some of the most technologically advanced in the world. When our farmers compete, they win.
But if other countries impose retaliatory tariffs on American products, they will be unable to compete. Other countries aren't stupid either. They would impose tariffs on the products that hit U.S. producers the most. According to the Congressional Research Service, the soybean, cotton, sorghum and pork industries in particular suffered losses thanks to China's retaliatory tariffs. There's a reason many farmers disliked the Trump administration's trade war.
However, there may be some people who dislike President Trump's immigration policies even more. The former president has promised to impose mass deportations. Anyone in the country illegally could be a target. While there are countless arguments for this policy on moral, economic, and security grounds, there is no doubt that such expulsions would dramatically increase food prices.
One of the main factors that affects the price of food is the price of labor and whether there are enough people to harvest the food. On average, labor costs account for about 15% (and growing) of a farmer's costs. Agriculture, like other industries, is also facing a serious labor shortage. According to the World Wildlife Fund, an estimated 10 million tons of food already go unharvested each year due to labor shortages and other factors. Such losses are one of the downsides of historically low unemployment rates.
Now imagine how much worse the problem would be if the Trump administration tried to deport the estimated 44% of the U.S. farm workforce who are in the country illegally. Food supplies will collapse and farmers' labor costs will explode. Food prices will rise.
And do you want to go out to eat? With nearly 10% of restaurant and hospitality workers believed to be illegal immigrants, the costs would be unimaginably high.
Some may argue that vital industries should not depend on illegal aliens. But the fact is, that's what they do for now. Deporting these workers would cause prices to rise significantly.
While I only touch on the most direct ways in which Trump's policies will wreak havoc on food costs, many of his proposals would accelerate inflation more generally.
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He wants an ostensible tax cut without making significant cuts to government spending. Some economists say that would increase the federal deficit and put upward pressure on inflation. He has also scaled back antitrust enforcement during his term and is likely to scale it back again to allow companies to lock out competition.
Americans upset about soaring food prices would understandably want the businessman in the White House to fix the problem. But searching for President Trump's policies to ease inflation is like reaching for a bowl of jalapeños while suffering from an upset stomach. If you listen to him, it's clear that President Trump will make the problem worse.
If Trump is telling the truth about his policies, his claims to curb inflation are simply wrong. He would do exactly the opposite.
