Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo has entered the 2024 polls stage with a number of fantasies and self-contradictions.
One. His party is contesting 22 of the 542 seats, making it a close contender in the 18th National Assembly election. However, Kejriwal expects the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to lose. Among other things he has said is that Narendra Modi will step down as prime minister next year, on his 75th birthday, to be replaced by his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah. That's what it is. Another addition to this story is that Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was sacked within two months of the BJP's Lok Sabha victory to prevent him from becoming a challenger to Shah. It is said that it will be done.
poll predictions
two. Kejriwal said psychologists and “satta bazaars” (gambling markets) have predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally at 230, far higher than Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi's estimate of 150-180. It is claimed that If Kejriwal's calculations that the Bharatiya Janata Party will miss the halfway point ultimately prove correct, behind his claim that PM Modi will lead the country to a 'one country, one leader' model after the elections. What is the logic behind it?
three. Kejriwal has long been a master of subversion and obfuscation. Rhetoric plays an important role during election campaigns, but political commentators have not taken him or his Congressional brethren seriously when it comes to predicting polls. Current trends do not suggest a worsening of the ruling party's fortunes.
four. AAP has zero seats in the outgoing parliament, but its leadership decibel is probably higher than all other Indian bloc parties combined. Of the 22 seats being contested, the AAP is contesting nine seats against the BJP, while the remaining 13 seats in Punjab are against the Congress, which is defending eight of them. Kejriwal is confident of handling his ally India well and is trying to become a spoiler for the Bharatiya Janata Party. He is trying to break the party's poll selling pitch of the 'Modi Ki Guarantee' through conspiracy theories about the Prime Minister's succession plans. The BJP, on the other hand, was quick to dismiss such statements as fantasies and scolded Kejriwal for his own succession plan, or lack thereof, as he was forced to cling to the chief minister's post even while in jail.
Kejriwal's assurance – India too?
Five. Kejriwal announced his own 10-point agenda, which he called the 'Kejriwal Ki Guarantee', and the suo motu declared that it would also be on the Indian bloc's agenda if the government was formed. It is another matter that he did not consider or consult with his allies before making this announcement. So much for his criticism of the BJP's “authoritarianism”.
Six. Mr. Kejriwal, a master of weaving a compelling narrative, emerged as a populist leader in India's 2012 anti-corruption movement, which many say ultimately became the Congress's downfall. The party is now an ally of AAP in the Indian bloc. The list of contradictions is long.
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Seven. The Supreme Court's decision to release Arvind Kejriwal on 21-day interim bail and allow him to participate in election campaigning has raised eyebrows. First, he did not seek bail but challenged the legality of his arrest. The matter is awaiting judgment. The Supreme Court placed restrictions on his duties as state premier and prohibited him from commenting on the case. This means he cannot appear in the secretariat or sign files, except to estoppel his duties as prime minister.
religious support
Eight. Kejriwal shocked the opposition parties when he was released from Tihar Jail after 51 days in jail. Invoking Lord Hanuman, he jumped into the ring and challenged the Bharatiya Janata Party in the latter's own realm of Hindutva. Before embarking on 'Mission 2024', he visited the Hanuman temple in New Delhi with his family and senior AAP officials, and also visited a neighboring South Indian temple to offer prayers to Shani, the god of justice and retribution. Ta. . He then drove to party headquarters for what he called a press conference, which turned out to be a rally to celebrate Kejriwal's release, according to Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.
Surprisingly, despite Mann's prominence in his inner circle, Kejriwal paid tribute to the 18th-century Bangla Sahib Gurudwara, which is associated with Sikhism's eighth guru, Harkishan Dev. did not represent. Of the total 22 seats being contested by AAP, 13 seats, or 59%, are in Punjab. It is strange that Mr. Kejriwal's religious support does not take into account these voters (Sikhs not only in Punjab but also in Delhi and Haryana).
Read | Choose AAP and you won't have to go back to jail: Arvind Kejriwal's pitch
Nine. Kejriwal appears to have already violated the Supreme Court's directive by claiming that he is involved in a “false case”. BJP national spokesperson Sudhanshu Trivedi was quick to point out that Kejriwal may have “violated bail provisions”. It remains to be seen what the court will think about this deviation.
While taking the unprecedented step of granting interim bail to a person who had not even applied for it, the Supreme Court said it would allow Kejriwal 21 days to campaign as his case would take time to conclude. Notably, Kejriwal's plea to be granted bail till June 4, when the results are announced, was rejected and he has to return to Tihar on June 2, the day after polls in Punjab end. Must be. Delhi and Haryana, where AAP is contesting a total of 14 seats (Haryana has only one seat), will go to polls on May 25, while Gujarat and Assam, where AAP is contesting two seats each, have already Voting has ended.
Soren's question
And 10. It will be interesting to see if Kejriwal's precedent is also cited by former Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren, who is in jail on corruption charges. Ten of the state's 14 seats will be on the ballot in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. Like Kejriwal, Soren was also elected chief minister of the state and is the leader of his political party, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). It was founded in 1972, 40 years before AAP was born. However, unlike Kejriwal, Soren did not avoid nine summons from the Enforcement Directorate. Clearly, that in itself is a serious violation and the Supreme Court has taken a negative view in the Kejriwal case. Instead, Soren surrendered and went to prison. He also resigned from his post and allowed Champai Soren to become Prime Minister. As for Kejriwal, JMM's allies in the Indian bloc also symbolically left Hemant Soren's chair vacant at the Delhi and Ranchi rallies. Will and should he also be allowed to campaign?
(Mr. Shuvabrata Bhattacharya is a former editor and public relations critic)
Disclaimer: These are the author's personal opinions.
