49 seats in eight states and federal territories are scheduled to vote in the fifth phase of the Sabah state election on May 20. With 70% of Sabah seats voting completed, the battle has entered the consolidation phase for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the battleground state. Since the party won a majority of these seats along with its allies in 2019, the challenge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is to retain it and avoid a significant drop in seats.
At this stage, Bihar and Odisha have 5 seats each, Jharkhand has 3 seats, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh have 1 seat each, Maharashtra has 13 seats, Uttar Pradesh has 14 seats and West Bengal has won 5 seats each. Seven seats will be up for vote. This phase will also see the end of voting in Maharashtra and western regions. Afterwards, fighting remains only in the Hindi heartland and eastern India. Additionally, voting for 35 assembly seats will be held simultaneously in Odisha on May 20th.
The main potential candidates at this stage are Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Rahul Gandhi (Raebareli), Piyush Goyal (North Mumbai), Chirag Paswan (Hajpur) and Omar Abdullah (Baramulla).
seats are divided
The BJP is contesting in 40 seats and its allies in nine seats. This includes six seats where Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena is contesting. In contrast, Congress is contesting just 18 seats, leaving her allies with 31 seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is contesting 10 seats, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena is contesting eight seats, Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is contesting two seats, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is contesting four seats. ing. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is contesting 46 seats, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in five seats and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in seven seats.
In 2019, the BJP won 32 of the 49 seats to be polled on Monday, according to NDTV data centre. If the Congress has one seat, the BJD has two seats, the BJP alliance has seven seats and the Congress alliance (including TMC) has seven seats. Effectively, the NDA won 39 seats, the Indian bloc's constituent parties eight seats, and the Non-Aligned Party, or BJD, won two seats despite its usually pro-BJP stance for the past decade.
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The NDA recorded an average vote share of 53% in the constituencies it won, Indian Bloc voters got 50% and non-aligned parties got 49% of the votes. In terms of narrow margins, the Bharatiya Janata Party has won 12 seats with a 10 percentage point (pp) difference in vote share, making it a close race. The Bharatiya Janata Party won with a majority of over 10% out of 20 seats.
The BJP had a strike rate of 80% in these 49 seats, even though its overall strike rate was lower at 69%. In contrast, these seats had a win rate of only 3%, compared to the national average of 12% in India's parliament.
In terms of turnout, turnout in 2019 was relatively low even at this stage. In 30 seats where voting increased, incumbent parties lost. Of the 19 seats where voter turnout decreased in 2019, parties that won in 2014 lost in six seats.
The battle for heritage in Maharashtra
Of the 13 seats in Maharashtra, 10 are in the Mumbai-Thane region, the Shiv Sena's stronghold. Here, a battle will be fought between the Shinde and Uddhav factions over the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. Uddhav's estranged cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) leader Raj Thackeray has also extended support to the Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance had won all these 10 seats in both 2014 and 2019 with a huge margin of victory of around 25%.
From the NDA, the BJP and Shinde's Shiv Sena are contesting five seats each, while from the Indian bloc, Uddhav's Shiv Sena is contesting seven seats, Congress is contesting two seats and Sharad Pawar's NCP is contesting one seat. The latter does not have a significant base in the region.
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Five seats – Kalyan, Thane, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South and Mumbai South Central – are contested between the two Sena factions. The Sena won seven of the 13 seats in Maharashtra in 2019, but since then, as many as five MPs have moved to Shinde's camp. The Indian bloc hopes that Mr. Uddhav will find sympathy for how the party was split by Mr. Shinde. Attention is focused on voter turnout in urban centers, which have traditionally been low.
Close battle in Odisha
In western Odisha, of the five seats going to polls on May 20, the BJP won three seats in 2019 and the BJD won two. This election race is likely to be even closer. Violence also broke out in the Odisha Chief Minister's home district of Ganjam ahead of the vote. One BJP supporter lost his life in the clash.
With simultaneous polls being held in Odisha, party strategists believe that an improved performance in the assembly polls will automatically boost its support in Sabah. VK Pandian's elevation within the BJD is unpopular with many party members and leaders, and the BJP hopes to capitalize on this sentiment by fielding senior ministers and chief ministers in the national elections.
Advantage of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh?
In Uttar Pradesh, 14 seats in the central and eastern parts of the state will be at stake. The state capital Lucknow, Faizabad (Ayodhya), Gandhi family strongholds Amethi and Raebareli are also involved in the fighting. The BJP had won the region by a landslide in the last elections, winning 13 out of 14 seats, with the Congress winning only in Raebareli.
This time, Rahul Gandhi is contesting from Raebareli, while KL Sharma, who is considered close to the Gandhi family, is contesting from Amethi. Priyanka has been camping in these two seats for the past few days as the fight is for the prestige of the Gandhi family. Meanwhile, the SP changed its strategy and fielded more OBC candidates than the BJP in the state to break through the BJP's strongholds. The party also reduced its field of Muslim Yadav candidates in order to shed its traditional image.
How well the BSP performs and which parties it damages could determine whether the Indian bloc is able to reduce the BJP's gains in seats around Ayodhya, the epicenter of the Ram Mandir movement. be.
Triangle contest approaching in Bengal
In West Bengal, seven seats in the southern and presidential regions will go to polls at this stage. The BJP won three seats in 2019 and the rest went to the TMC. A close race is expected here as the Congress and Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)-led alliance looks to enter into a triangular contest. Mamata's flip-flopping on whether she is part of the Indo-bloc may also have caused confusion among voters.
In five of the seven seats, the party that came third in 2019 won more votes than its margin of victory. Therefore, they could ruin the chances of any of the main candidates.
Bihar will go to polls in five northern seats, all of which the NDA won by large margins in 2019. From the NDA, the BJP is contesting three seats, while the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) are contesting one seat each. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is hoping to turn the tables on its performance in the 2020 assembly elections and Nitish Kumar's declining popularity due to flip-flops. He also hopes that his job creation as deputy premier will boost his own image.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his previous avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the author's personal opinions.
