There is a growing consensus among some analysts that Western policy towards Russia and China has been a major disaster. Instead of preventing the creation of a Sino-Russian alliance, the West has practically pushed Russia under China's umbrella. Many scholars and veteran diplomats, including Henry Kissinger, expected the opposite from the United States. He said in 2021, two years before his death, that the United States needs to reach an agreement with China on a new world order to ensure stability, otherwise the world will face a dangerous period like that before World War I. Against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to China, reportedly the 40th meeting between the two leaders in the past decade, there are ample grounds to claim that the United States has “failed to reach an understanding with the Chinese government on a new world order.”
Today, China and Russia are rapidly resolving their differences and moving toward a closer relationship, if not an alliance, based on an “unlimited partnership.” Both countries have at least two of their own, Iran and North Korea, archenemies of the West. The military and economic support of these allies has been a decisive factor in Russia's slow but steady invasion of Ukraine. The stronger Russia becomes at war with Ukraine and its Western allies, the more confident and assertive its leaders become in the former Soviet states.
Today, Russian leaders are contemplating establishing a new world structure that includes countries friendly to Russia. “We will form a new global architecture that includes efficient and safe transport and logistics corridors and a financial system independent of political interference. The efforts of the world majority will unite around them.” said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk in the Russian parliament on May 13, following the establishment of a new government following the presidential election. Although he did not elaborate on the specifics of this “new world structure,” it is clear that Russia and its partners are seeking to combine anti-Western powers within a more coordinated international bloc. This change in power in international relations creates a more confrontational environment, similar to the pre-war situation, as Kissinger warned.
The South Caucasus finds itself at the centre of this conflict: Georgia’s latest developments over the “foreign agents” law and Armenia’s anti-government protests in response to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border demarcation are often analysed as part of this power struggle. The region has largely retained its post-Soviet character of being a microcosm of global geopolitics.
Previously, the politics of the South Caucasus was characterized as “geopolitical heterogeneity.” This referred to the fact that the three local states adopted three opposing orientations in foreign policy: Azerbaijan was neutral, Georgia aspired to join the EU and NATO, and Armenia was an ally of Russia in the CSTO and EAEU. The polarization of international politics between two blocs (Western and non-Western) and the occurrence of this process in a rather confrontational form led the great powers to strengthen their own power within their supposed sphere of influence. Today, we observe an increase in Russian assertiveness towards the South Caucasus countries following Russia's strengthening of its position in Ukraine.
Moscow managed to win Azerbaijan's friendship by peacefully withdrawing peacekeeping forces from the Karabakh region. In parallel, some major Western powers took the wrong side of history by supporting the separatist forces in Karabakh. Anti-Azerbaijan resolutions in the parliaments of some EU member states, including the European Parliament, reintroduction of sanctions against Azerbaijan under Article 907 by the United States, suspension of Azerbaijan's voting rights in the European Parliament, etc. have negatively affected Azerbaijan's relations with the West. Incomprehensible, all these anti-Azerbaijan actions were taken in response to Azerbaijan's efforts to liberate the occupied territories and put an end to the separatist movement. However, Azerbaijan seeks to defend its independent foreign policy and plans to defend its independence within the Organization of Turkish States (OTS) and not within other regional blocs.
A departure from the Western orientation is also seen in the case of Georgia. The confrontation between the Georgian government and the Western countries has reached unprecedented levels. Tbilisi's efforts to control the inflow of subsidies to the country through the introduction of the “foreign agents” law seem at first glance quite normal, especially since there are similar regulations in the United States, but there are concerns that this law will be suppressed. The role of pro-Western forces in Georgia will move the country away from the Euro-Atlantic path. Thus, the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia (October 2024) will not only define the geopolitics of the region, but also the future of the country's foreign policy. If the ruling Georgian Dream party manages to remain in power after the elections, the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus region will be significantly changed in the future.
It is inevitable that this will also affect Armenia's foreign policy. There is a widely held view in the region that Armenia's aspirations to join the EU or end Russian influence in the country are unlikely to come true. Armenia's multi-sectoral dependence on Russia is evidenced by the increase in bilateral trade from $2.8 billion in 2021 to $7 billion in 2023, thanks to the country's avoidance of Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Armenia's trade with Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states increased 14 times. The Armenian government seems satisfied with these numbers and aims to expand economic ties with EAEU member states. These facts, along with regional power relations and Russia's still strong influence in the region, refute claims about Armenia's possible departure from Russia's orbit. This situation will be further affected if Georgia abandons its Euro-Atlantic aspirations and “returns” to the region.
As seen during the Cold War, the geopolitics of the South Caucasus region is also changing as the dynamics of international relations evolve and the world divides into two camps. If the ongoing war in Ukraine tilts further in Russia's favor, the region could face a more confident and aggressive Russia. As regional experts have often said, the outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the fate of the South Caucasus region in particular.
Source: Dr. Vasif Huseynov is a senior advisor at the Center for the Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) and a part-time lecturer at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan. Photo: Welcome ceremony for President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on May 16, 2024 (Photo courtesy of the Russian Presidential Press Department) The views expressed in opinion articles and commentaries are not necessarily those of commonspace.eu or its partners. It does not necessarily reflect the
