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Alberta NDP leadership candidate Naheed Nenshi answers a question during a leadership debate in Calgary on May 11.Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press
Naheed Nenshi has been receiving a lot of applause from the Alberta NDP audience lately. But there were murmurs and complaints when he referred to United Conservative MLAs as “monkeys on the other side” during a leadership debate earlier this month. Nenshi's quips about decorum during parliamentary questions were too ugly for many New Democrats.
Still, part of Nenshi's popularity is due to this kind of energy. The former Calgary mayor is in tune with the tone of these turbulent political times, and could push back when confronted by bellicose UCPers on council. “Maybe I was being too polite” about the monkey reference, he later told CBC.
Nenshi remains the favorite to win the Alberta NDP leadership race, which will reach its final stage in a month, given all the positives and negatives that come with front-runner status.
He's probably the main reason the Alberta NDP had about 16,000 members at the end of 2023, but now has more than 85,000 members across the province. In March, party stalwart Rakhi Pancholi withdrew from the leadership race and supported Nenshi. and his ability to expand the party. Labor leader Gill McGowan also withdrew this month (because he was unable to pay his membership fee), leaving the field reduced to four candidates.
Calgary, Nenshi's home base, is where the Alberta NDP needs a big victory in the next provincial election to be re-elected to a single term. At the moment, it's also where his NDP membership in Alberta is seeing the fastest-growing sales.
Leadership rival Kathleen Ganley's campaign said her top six party member sales were all in Calgary, where her district of Calgary-Mountain View has the most NDP members (3,500) of any riding in the province.
In a development that seemed unlikely even a year ago, current leader Rachel Notley's Edmonton-Strathcona region (long the party's heartland) has moved into the same league as Calgary-Glenmore in terms of membership sales. It's in. The latter has been a conservative stronghold for most of its history, with the NDP's Nagwan al-Gunaid winning the 2023 election by a margin of 48 votes.
Nothing's been decided yet. With membership sales closed, the focus for each leadership election will be on getting people to actually vote. Ballot papers will be sent out at the end of this month and people can vote online, by phone or by mail. Notley's farewell party will be held on June 21, the day before all ballots arrive.
The curse of the front-runner may still be in full swing. The race uses a type of preferential voting system that has seen front-runners lose in the past (think Andrew Scheer's surprise victory over Maxime Bernier in the 2017 federal Conservative leadership race, or Stéphane Dion's victory in the 2006 federal Liberal leadership race). Second-choice choices will matter. Some who entered the party with the express intention of voting for Nenshi may change their minds.
And this race means far more than mainstream media headlines. Ganley and Edmonton candidate Sarah Hoffman, the latter a former health minister, both answer detailed policy questions and are exceptional door knockers. Candidate Jody Carahoo Stonehouse is focused on water issues.
Ms. Hoffman, in particular, has been able to take on Mr. Nenshi in debates and is also Mr. Nenshi's fiercest challenger, challenging him for past positions on affordable housing and the minimum wage.
That's why Nenshi sometimes fights what he calls the NDP's “purity test.” For example, all candidates point to the fact that NDP members in Alberta must ultimately decide whether to maintain formal ties with the provincial party and the federal party. But Mr. Nenshi, the candidate with the least favorable formal relationship with the federal NDP, could easily unsubscribe from the federal party's email list if he didn't like Alberta NDP members, Mr. Hoffman argued. refuted.
The Nenshi campaign begins with the premise that Albertans are fundamentally centrist, and that garnering broad support, including men and energy workers, is key. He questions why the provincial NDP would partner with a federal entity not under provincial control, which is unpopular in Alberta and often at odds with the province on energy policy. Those differences between Mr. Hoffman and Mr. Nenshi are likely to come to light at the Edmonton leadership debate on June 2nd.
Ultimately, many Alberta NDP members, especially new members, will adopt a pragmatic underdog perspective, seeking the candidate with the best chance of defeating Premier Daniel Smith.
