Stephen Maher is a political journalist and the author of several books, including The Prince: The Turbulent Reign of Justin Trudeau.
In October 2022, as I began writing my book about Justin Trudeau’s government, I told my interviewees that history would look favorably on the Trudeau government.
At the time, it seemed to me that Trudeau had done more to change the country than Jean Chretien, Paul Martin or Stephen Harper, and his record was comparable to that of Brian Mulroney. Justin's father, Pierre, was more important (he gave the country the Charter of Rights and Freedoms), but I thought history might place Justin above other recent prime ministers.
Trudeau has lifted millions of children out of poverty, legalized marijuana, reformed the Senate (sort of), led the country through a pandemic, successfully defended the North American Free Trade Agreement against Donald Trump, advanced reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, curbed growing inequality, and taken action to reduce emissions with a carefully designed carbon tax, which he staunchly defended through tedious legal and political battles.
Of course, he made plenty of mistakes, squandered political capital on nonsense, starting with his trip to the Aga Khan's island, which led into an ethical minefield after he rejected the advice of senior staff, then his disastrous trip to India, which involved too many costume changes, a guest appearance by pro-Khalistani terrorists and no increase in chickpea exports afterwards.
The worst was the SNC-Lavalin scandal, in which his office inappropriately pressured then-Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould, who was unwilling to give a jail-free pass to a troubled company with deep ties to the people who run the country. The scandal brought his administration to the brink of collapse, but he weathered it. All of his recent predecessors have presided over scandals at least as bad.
When I began researching this book, Trudeau seemed to be making a lot of mistakes but generally succeeding. Eighteen months later, by the time this book is published, he has gotten a lot worse, and the trend lines should give him pause.
His mismanagement of relations with both China and India and his inexplicable unwillingness to tackle foreign interference in Canadian politics have shaken the confidence of even his most staunch supporters, but what is more dangerous to him is his economic leadership, or lack thereof.
In 2015, Trudeau won by promising to act on “the middle class and the people who work hard to get into it.” But he eventually lost that focus and was slow to address voters' concerns about the cost of living, leaving a huge opening for Pierre Poirievre, who was unable to effectively defend a carbon tax, leading many Canadians to believe that it was the cause of all their problems, when in fact it isn't.
And he failed to prevent the housing crisis. He dramatically increased immigration when there was not enough housing, as evidenced by the number of tent cities. Trudeau responded later, but only after Poiriervre positioned himself as a champion for young people struggling to find a place to live. Trudeau cannot win an election unless he can convince voters that he, not Poiriervre, has their backs.
He personally saved the Liberal Party of Canada from ruin, so the party isn't going to throw him out the window like Liz Truss did, but many of his supporters are hoping he will declare victory and go on a speaking tour while the new leader has time to rebuild his government.
When I interviewed the prime minister in February, he convinced me that he was serious about his desire to lead the party in the next election. “I see this as a fundamental choice about who we are as a country, who we are as Canadians,” he told me. “To me, this is why I got into politics – to have these big fights about who we are as a country and where we're going.”
If he stays, that may serve his purposes, but it does not serve the party's purposes. The trajectory is very bad. His brand is worn down. He cannot connect with people. If he runs again, the election will inevitably become a referendum on him, and the Conservatives are confident they can win. If he leaves, the election will become a referendum on Mr Poiriévre, and the outcome may be less predictable.
A few months ago, a friend of Trudeau's told me there were four people who could force him out of office: his old friend and strategist Tom Pitfield, his chief of staff Katie Telford, and cabinet ministers Mark Miller and Dominic Leblanc. A few weeks later, Globe columnist Laurence Martin wrote that Leblanc, who used to babysit Trudeau, was considering running for prime minister. This is the kind of thing that happens when a ship is sinking.
With a global brand and a track record he can point to with pride, Trudeau is looking forward to returning to his lucrative career as a public speaker — a return that will be made easier if he retires while still undefeated.
