According to a May 2024 report by John Gibbons of PetBusinessProfessor.com, pet food inflation, while persistent, is slowing.
This month, inflation remains 50% below the national average, but in January 2024 it was +52%.
“Petflation” fell from 1.7% in April 2024 to 1.6% in May 2024.
“Prices were +0.2% from April but +3.3% compared to May 23, down from +3.4% last month. This is because price increases were greater in 2023 from April to May,” Gibbons said.
Pet food and groceries were the only categories to see price decreases from April 2024.
The year-over-year national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate was 3.3%, down from 3.4%, and only 83% of the 22>23 rate and 38% of the 21>22 rate. For most pet categories, the 23>24 rate is below the 22>23 rate.
Pet food prices in May were down 0.1% from April.
Comparison of 2022 and 2024
US CPI – Prices are +0.2% from April. Year-over-year growth has decreased from 3.4% to 3.3%. It peaked at +9.1% in June 2022. The target inflation rate is less than 2%, so it is more than 65% above the target. Gibbons said that after 12 consecutive declines, there were two increases, one month of stability, two consecutive declines, and a decline in three of the six months. The current rate is 17% lower than 22>23, but 21>24 is still 16.7%, accounting for 73.9% of total inflation since 2019. Inflation was low at the beginning of 2021. Pet Food – Prices are -0.1% from April and -1.1% from May 23, down from -0.1%. It is now well below the inflation rate of +1.0% for home food.
“The 1.1% year-on-year decline is compared to a time when prices were 23.3% higher than 2019 levels, and the current decline is still lower than the 0.01% decline from 2020 to 2021,” Mr Gibbons said.
The inflation spike from 2021 to 2024 produced 99.1% of the total inflation rate since 2019 of 23.0%.
Year to date – 2022 vs. 2024
US CPI – 23>24 rate is 3.3%, the same as April, but down 38% from 22>23 and 60% lower than 21>22. It is also 21% below the 2019>2024 average year-over-year increase, but 63% higher than the 2018>2021 average annual increase. 78% of the 22.7% inflation since 2019 has occurred in 2021>24. Pet Food – Year-to-date inflation is 1.6%, down from 2.2% in April and 89% lower than the 22>23 rate. It is now 72% lower than 21>22 and 14% below the 2018>2020 average rate. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate on the chart and maintains second place in the 21>24 rate. Deflation in the first half of 2021 has kept prices low so far this year, but prices have skyrocketed in 2022 and especially 2023. 94% of the inflation since 2019 has occurred between 2021-2024.
Latest Update: Pet Food Producer Price Index (PPI)
Retail prices, which generally mirror the PPI for dogs and cats, peaked in May 2023, declined slightly in July-August, increased in September/October, plateaued in November, declined from December to February 2024, increased in March 2024, and then unexpectedly declined from April to May. This is despite the PPI increasing only 0.9% in February and stabilizing from March to May 2024.
According to Gibbons, canned and wet dog food was the main driver of the PPI increase, including a small increase in February 2024.
Prices have increased by just 1% since March 2023, indicating they have remained stable for 14 months.
The “Other Pet Food” category is -7.9% from May 2023. This category continues to decline over time compared to 8.6% in May 2021 and 24.0% in May 2019.
