The Labour Party won a landslide majority in Britain’s general election on Friday, bringing with it a huge boost, but it will also bring some headaches once the celebrations die down.
UK Labour landslide comes with its own risks: experts
Before the vote, the Conservatives warned voters not to hand Labour leader Keir Starmer a “blank cheque” of a “super majority”, but as Prime Minister he now has a majority of more than 170 votes and a five-year term over a demoralised main opposition party.
“The main benefit is clarity – it allows the current government to go ahead with its programme without obstruction or burden,” Tony McNulty, a lecturer at Queen Mary University of London and a former Labour minister under Tony Blair, told AFP.
Mr McNulty, who became an MP during Labor’s 1997 landslide victory, said the landslide victory gave Labor a “treasure trove of talent” to fill government posts, but risked disappointing MPs who lost out.
But “supermajority” does not have the same constitutional meaning in the UK as it does in the US, explained Prof Vernon Bogdanor of King’s College London.
“A government with a 30-seat majority can do more or less what it wants, just like a government with a 200-seat majority,” said Bogdanor, one of the country’s leading constitutional law experts.
Among the potential problems Starmer will have to address are those that stem from the quirks of Britain’s single-member constituency system and a fragmented political landscape that have combined to produce the most unequal outcome in electoral history.
“The system doesn’t work well when there are too many parties,” Bogdanor said.
Labour is expected to get fewer votes than it lost in the disastrous 2019 general election, but a split in the right-wing opposition means it is on track to win around 210 seats in the 650-seat Parliament.
Only about a third of voters chose Labour, leaving Starmer to balance the wishes of his army of MPs with a public that, ironically, is not particularly enthusiastic about the new government.
Starmer’s approval rating is the lowest of any incoming prime minister, minus 18 points and minus 20 points in Ipsos and YouGov polls conducted in May respectively.
“This is a punishment election. People just want to punish the Conservatives,” Bogdanor said.
“There are high hopes for improvements in health services and other services, but they are not likely to come soon.
“The financial situation is extremely dire – most people agree the NHS is in serious trouble – what are we going to do?” he asked, adding that tax rises seemed inevitable.
“There are many improvements that need to be made to public services, including the environment, wastewater in our rivers and oceans, housing policy, and school repairs. This is a big dilemma for the new government.”
“So disillusionment will occur very quickly and people, especially on the left, will attack the government,” he warned.
Mr McNulty said the public would give the government the benefit of the doubt “initially”, but “how long that will last is up for debate”.
As a result, Starmer will want to unite the party and focus on popular issues.
The most obvious would be to remove the cap on benefits for second children, which McNulty said was “symbolic” internally and could have an immediate impact on tackling poverty.
Potentially divisive issues include Gaza, where there is pressure from the left to take a tougher stance on Israel, and immigration, where the public supports hardline policies opposed by Labour MPs.
Such a large majority would also give Labour MPs, many of whom have no political experience, the confidence that they could stage a massive rebellion without inflicting defeat on the government.
“A landslide victory is not necessarily a good thing because a large majority often means more room for discontent,” Bogdanor said.
To maintain harmony, McNulty advised Starmer to accept that dissenting voices “at least need to be recognised and given space”.
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