As the war in Gaza escalates, President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are at loggerheads in public over military strategy, political leadership and even the number of casualties. Like all romantic disputes in the past, this one will probably be resolved without a public breakup, but it's a tense moment.
The most notable disagreement concerns Prime Minister Netanyahu's plan to attack Hamas' remaining stronghold in Rafah, south of Gaza, along the border with Egypt. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a wide range of other Israeli officials believe that destroying the region's four Hamas battalions, numbering about 3,000 fighters, is essential to breaking military control in the territory.
Biden said in an interview with MSNBC over the weekend that Rafah was a “red line that should not be crossed,” but it was not clear what he meant by that. Biden said last month that Israel should attack Rafah until it has a “credible and workable plan to ensure the safety” of the more than 1 million Palestinian refugees forced into the fighting, according to a White House summary of the meeting. He said it was not. Administration officials say they have not seen any such plans yet.
“We will be there,” Prime Minister Netanyahu retorted on Sunday, adding: Do you know what the red line is? That October 7th will never happen again. It won't happen again. ” A senior Israeli official emphasized his position in an interview Wednesday. “Even if the administration said, 'Never do Rafa,' it's not going to work. … There's no way it's going to do 80 percent of the job.”
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But there may be more to Rafa's feud than meets the eye. Israel has promised the Biden administration a careful operational plan that includes protection of Palestinians and further humanitarian assistance. The Israel Defense Forces will not move forward without detailed tactical scenarios shared with the White House.
“We are not going to suddenly invade Rafah. Preparing the plan will take time,” explains a senior Israeli official. Israeli officials did not say how long the plan would take. But that is expected to take several weeks and could extend beyond April, the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. In any case, a conflict with Mr. Rafa does not appear to be imminent.
A deeper disagreement is whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government have truly united the country toward a clear end to the conflict. U.S. intelligence analysts were openly skeptical of Netanyahu's leadership prospects in their annual threat assessment submitted to Congress this week.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership potential and his coalition government of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties pursuing hard-line policies on Palestine and security issues could be in jeopardy,” the threat assessment said. . “Distrust in Prime Minister Netanyahu's ability to govern has deepened and spread further. … Another, more moderate government may emerge.”
This was unusually frank language for a public intelligence report, and Israeli officials protested, seeing it as an attempt to interfere in Israel's internal affairs by effectively “weaponizing” the intelligence report. Prime Minister Netanyahu's team has already tried to drive a wedge into Israeli politics, with Vice President Harris saying on Sunday's CBS News, “It's important to distinguish and not confuse the government of Israel and the people of Israel.” They were indignant because they saw it as an act of defiance.
What's happening here is that a long-standing private dispute is becoming public. Administration officials have been looking for months for ways to encourage other Israeli leaders, including former army chief of staff Benny Gantz, to challenge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who polls show is deeply unpopular in the country. But trying to steer political outcomes with democratic allies can easily backfire.
The most fundamental disagreement concerns the circumstances of the war itself. Prime Minister Netanyahu speaks as if victory is near. That's why he wants to take Rafa right away and be done with it in his mind. But U.S. officials believe Israel is overestimating the damage it has inflicted on Hamas, saying Netanyahu has no way of securing Gaza and stabilizing the region even if he destroys Rafah's four battalions. I suspect that there are still some left.
Again, U.S. intelligence provided a scathing assessment in Monday's testimony, stating that “Israel will likely face armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will have a hard time neutralizing Hamas' underground infrastructure.” right.”
Israeli officials present detailed statistics to support their claims that the war has been effective. Hamas and other militias had about 35,000 fighters when the fighting began. More than 25,000 of them were killed, captured or injured, officials said. It said 12,000 of the minority Hamas regular fighters, including about 60% of battalion commanders, had left the battlefield.
U.S. intelligence estimates that Hamas' casualties in the plan are “much lower,” a U.S. official said. Part of the reason is that the United States counts battlefield casualties differently. However, there are significant differences in the evaluations of this campaign between Israel and the United States.
The tunnel war is the most troubling part of the attack on Gaza. Israeli officials said they spent weeks devising tactics to attack the vast network of zigzags, estimated to be 380 miles long, within territory just 45 miles long and up to 11.5 miles wide. . Israeli officials said they had destroyed about 60% of Hamas' command and control facilities inside the tunnels and 90% of the buried rockets, which totaled 15,000 to 20,000 at the start of the war.
But Israeli officials acknowledge that the destruction of Hamas's underground empire has only just begun. Officials said less than 30% of the tunnel was occupied. And Hamas still operates smuggling tunnels into Egypt.
Finally, on the fundamental question of what Gaza will look like “the next day,” U.S. and Israeli officials agree there is still no clear answer. That's one reason why Biden distrusts Prime Minister Netanyahu. The White House believes Israeli leaders have a sound strategy to end a conflict that has brutalized Israel, had devastating effects on Palestinian civilians, and is increasingly harmful to U.S. interests around the world. I doubt whether there is.