Editor's note: Peter Bergen is a national security analyst at CNN, a vice president at New America, a professor of practice at Arizona State University, and the author of the Audible podcast “In the Room,” also available on Apple and Spotify. Also a host. He is the author of “The Rise and Fall of Osama Bin Laden.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion on CNN.
CNN —
If the attack on a Moscow-area concert venue on Friday that killed at least 133 people was indeed the work of ISIS, it would unfortunately suggest that the terrorist organization is making some kind of resurgence.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. A US official told CNN that the US has no reason to doubt that.
Back at its peak in 2014 and 2015, ISIS controlled territory the size of Britain and a population of millions of people in Iraq and Syria. During this period, the group also carried out a number of terrorist plots in Europe, including attacks in Paris in 2015 that killed 130 people. ISIS has also influenced terrorists in the United States, including the gunman who killed 49 people at the Pulse nightclub in 2015. In 2016, there was the deadliest terrorist attack in the United States since 9/11 in Orlando, Florida.
However, between 2017 and 2018, ISIS lost its so-called geographic “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria, and has since transformed into a loosely allied group of ISIS-affiliated organizations in Africa and Asia, with large-scale expansion elsewhere. At first glance, the ability to carry out such attacks seems to be lacking.
One of the most nefarious affiliates is ISIS-K in Afghanistan, which captured 13 U.S. military personnel and approximately 170 Afghan civilians at Kabul airport in August 2021 when the Biden administration withdrew U.S. troops from Afghanistan. was murdered.
However, the understanding at the time was that ISIS affiliates in certain African countries, such as Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia, were not capable of carrying out large-scale international attacks. But then a major terrorist attack occurred in Iran in January, and at a memorial ceremony for General Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran's most powerful military leaders, who was killed in a US drone strike in 2020. A person died. , ISIS-K has shown that the group is strongly anti-Shiite but could target hostile states like Shiite-majority Iran.
Russia's state news agency reported that in March alone, Russia thwarted several ISIS-related incidents, including a plot to attack a synagogue in Moscow.
The US Embassy in Russia also said on March 7 that it was “monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts.” “The U.S. government also shared this information with Russian authorities, consistent with its long-standing 'duty to warn' policy,” a National Security Council spokesperson said. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the US warning as “provocative” and said: “These acts are blatant threats and resemble an attempt to intimidate and destabilize our society.” “There is,” he said.
Taken together, the fact that Russian authorities discovered numerous ISIS-related plots earlier this month, while U.S. authorities were warning of attacks at the same time, indicates that there was an active terrorist threat from ISIS in Moscow. . Not only Americans, but also Russians.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a five-minute speech on Saturday, linked the suspect in Friday's attack to Ukraine. Officials arrested four men on suspicion of attacking a concert venue in the Moscow region as they tried to cross the border into Ukraine, state news agency reported, adding that the men “had relevant contacts on the Ukrainian side.” announced, the FSB announced.
Ukraine has strongly denied any involvement in the attack, and Ukrainian and U.S. officials have expressed concern that Putin's comments could be used to justify the ongoing escalation of the war.
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ISIS-K certainly has the capability and motivation to attack Russia. As for motives, Russia's support for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, which helped him maintain power during the Syrian civil war, certainly comes to mind. For ISIS, Assad is a mortal enemy because he is a member of the Shiite sect and has systematically killed Sunnis in Syria. Historically, Russia has also brutally oppressed Muslim minorities such as the Chechens. In terms of capabilities, the ISIS-K attack in Iran earlier this year showed that the group is capable of carrying out large-scale attacks beyond its home base in Afghanistan.
What we do know is that President Putin made the obvious mistake of condemning the US warning. And if ISIS-K did indeed attack the concert hall, the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan would allow ISIS to regroup with the ability to carry out large-scale attacks in Afghanistan. You will need to ask yourself some serious questions about whether you made it possible. other countries. If that happens, it would be a blow to the Biden administration.