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overview
From December 2023 to February 2024, approximately 1.8 million people (18 percent of the analyzed population) will experience high levels of acute food insecurity and will be classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (crisis or above), of which approximately 170,000 4,000 people were placed in IPC Phase 4 (emergency). There are 1.6 million participants in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Urgent action is needed to save lives and reduce disparities in food consumption.
Of the 19 regions analyzed (18 departments and the central region), six regions were classified as Phase 3, including Gracias a Dios, Lempira, Yoro, Choluteca, La Paz, and Santa Barbara. The remaining departments were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stress).
The prefectures with the highest levels of food insecurity were Gracias a Dios (48%), Lempira and Yoro (both 28%), and the region with the highest food insecurity was Cortes, with a population of approximately 340,000 people. It was the province (including El Progreso) and the central district. (201,000 people), Yoro (128,000 people).
Low incomes and rising food prices are putting pressure on the poorest households, reducing their purchasing power and creating food insecurity.
Additionally, the country's unemployment rate is high, with 57.3 percent of the workforce unemployed or underemployed (due to lack of hours worked or income).
Humanitarian food assistance is being provided by countries and aid agencies to the most affected people, but it still falls short of the minimum 25 percent of food energy required by the IPC Protocol to be considered sufficient.
In the first forecast period (March to May 2024), the current situation will continue, with a slight increase in the population classified as IPC Phase 3 or higher (1.8 million people). The six departments classified in Phase 3 during this period are expected to maintain the same classification, with the exception of Santa Barbara Department, which will move to Phase 2, and Intibuca Department, which will move to Phase 3. As changes occur, the proportion of the population in IPC phase 3 and above tends to increase.
The situation is expected to worsen during the second forecast period (June-August 2024), coinciding with seasonal hunger. Approximately 1.9 million people (19% of the analyzed population) are projected to be in his IPC Phase 3 or higher, including 226,000 in Phase 4. In addition to the six departments classified as Phase 3 in the initial projections, the provinces of Olancho, El Paraiso and Valle are also likely to move into Phase 3.