NewsOpinion Editorial Long drought continues: Drought could cause food inflation
Declining water levels in reservoirs are shaping the post-election agenda.food inflation must be contained
Last year's southwest monsoon was not very good, but post-monsoon rains and winter rains (courtesy of El Nino) also affected agricultural production in the country
At 50.43 billion cubic meters (BCM), the water level in the country's 150 major reservoirs is only 28.2 percent of its maximum storage capacity. This is lower than the 62.21 BCM a year ago and the current 10-year average of 52.73 BCM. The situation is even worse in southern states, where reservoirs are only 15.7 percent full. Nagarjuna Sagar, Somasila, Yelleru, Priyadarshini Jurala, Kadam, Krishnaraja Sagara, Tungabhadra and Thattihallia reservoirs in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka are almost dry.
The focus may be on the election now, but that could well change in a month's time when all eyes will be on the monsoon. The fate of India's economic growth is no longer as much a “bet on the monsoon'' as it was when British Viceroy George Curzon made that famous comment. But it is true that two bad monsoons could worsen the situation.
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Last year's poor southwest monsoon and post-monsoon and winter rains due to El Niño affected the country's agricultural production. This means that government agencies procured only about 47 million tonnes (metric tons) of rice from October to April 2023-24, a 5.7% decrease compared to the corresponding period of 2022-23. This is also proven from this.
Wheat procurement has also been sluggish, with around 21 million tons purchased so far, but this is expected to remain between 26 and 28 million tons, compared to the initial target of 35 million tons. Retail prices of pulses, sugar, potatoes, onions, tomatoes and most other vegetables have increased significantly from last year, also indicating a poor harvest. El Niño affects not only rainfall but also temperature. For example, wheat yields in central India have been hit by an unusually warm November-December period, which has impaired tillering and vegetative growth of the crop. The scorching hot summer that began in April is also thought to be due to the influence of El Niño.
Thankfully, El Niño appears to be coming to an end, with most global models predicting that El Niño will have weakened to a “neutral” stage by June, and that the second half of the four-month monsoon season (June to September) will be a long time coming. has even been shown to develop into a La Nina phenomenon. The Japan Meteorological Agency's prediction that this year's monsoon is “most likely to be above normal” is based largely on that, given that La Niña events have been linked in the past to excess rainfall in India, but this is a good thing. It's an omen. In any case, for the government taking over after the elections, the main challenge in the first 100 days may be managing food inflation in case the monsoon does not get that big. Although one hopes for the best, one must always prepare for the worst.
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First upload date: April 5, 2024, 07:50 IST