President Biden, who announced that the US would suspend shipments of 3,500 bombs to Israel, has an laudable motive to save innocent Palestinians from the military influence of Hamas, which uses Rafah as its last stronghold in Gaza. be. It also needs to shore up support among progressive voters, who understandably, if not admirably, that Israel's use of American weapons means we are committing war crimes.
But motivation is not an outcome. And if Biden's decision is not reversed soon, the outcome will be the opposite of what he intended. Why? Let's count the ways.
Reducing munitions will help Hamas.
The tragedy in Gaza is essentially the result of Hamas' decisions. The idea is to start a war in the most brutal way possible. To fight behind or behind civilians. Attack border crossings where humanitarian supplies are delivered. and the brutal detention of the 132 remaining hostages in Israel, dead or alive. Whatever else disarmament accomplishes with respect to Israel, it is both a propaganda coup and a tactical victory for Hamas that justifies its decision to treat its own people as human shields. The idea is that the longer it holds out, the better its chances of survival, encouraging Hamas to bide its time, especially in hostage negotiations.
It won't end the war. That lingers.
Even an Israeli government led by someone more moderate than Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of leaving Gaza with Hamas still in control of any part of the territory. We have yet to hear whether the Biden administration has any ideas on how to make that happen without incurring a backlash from Mr. Rafah.
It is also considering banning Israel from using precision-guided kits, if not bombs, in which case it would use far less accurate 120mm tank shells and 5.56mm bullets. This means that they will invade. Besides putting Israeli forces at greater risk, does the Biden administration really think that there will be fewer Palestinian casualties after weeks or months of house-to-house fighting?
That would weaken Israel's deterrence and invite a broader war.
One of the reasons Israel has not yet waged a full-scale war in the north is that Hezbollah has so far been unable to do so, especially out of fear that its arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles would be destroyed. , discouraging a full-scale attack. Israeli Air Force. But what if a Lebanese terrorist group sees reports of Israeli munitions shortages and decides now is the opportune time to attack?
If that were to happen, the loss of civilian life in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities could be incalculable. Biden will have no choice but to reverse this week's decision and authorize a major military airlift to Israel. And the United States may have to provide even more direct military support to Israel.
There may be unforeseen consequences for foreign policy.
Israel's doubts about America's reliability as an ally will not lead to Israeli obedience. In return, we will become more determined to become more independent from Washington's influence in ways we don't want. Is Israel's cutting-edge cyber technology coming to Beijing? Will relations between Israel and Moscow become closer? Americans who accuse Israel of freeloading on American power will be even less pleased if Israel becomes a freelancer in foreign policy. What Biden should have learned when he tried to make Saudi Arabia a global pariah, he only learned it, to his own humiliation. The kingdom had other strategic options.
Worse, it would strengthen rather than weaken Prime Minister Netanyahu and his political partners, the Israeli far-right. They will argue that they are the only ones with the fortitude to stand up to a liberal president who bows to pressure from campus protesters who hate Israel.
It's a political gift to Donald Trump.
Anti-Israel chants on college campuses are loud but not particularly influential. Few voters, including young people, put the war in Gaza at the top of their list of political priorities. However, a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll shows that a clear majority of Americans support current levels of support for Israel or even want it to increase. This cut would further alienate pro-Israel voters and only partially mollify anti-Israel voters, who would put pressure on the president to go further.
In other words, this is a typical case of falling between stools. It also plays into the perception that Biden is weak, unable to stand up to the left of his party and a feckless ally of friends in trouble. The last time the United States bailed out an ally in Afghanistan, the result was a political fiasco from which the president's approval ratings never recovered. Why would the White House want voters to remember that episode?
There is still time for the president to reverse this misjudgment. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet could help by demonstrating that they are taking immediate, visible, and meaningful steps to keep Palestinian civilians out of harm's way. But arms reductions that weaken Israel as it faces its enemies on multiple fronts have come and should continue to be the best of times for a president who has expressed clear and unwavering support for the Jewish state at the worst of times. It is not suitable for a president who was.
