Ukrainian forces are slowly advancing after breaking through the first line of Russian defenses in the occupied south, now with their eyes set on breaking through another heavily defended territory.
Military analysts said Ukrainian forces have been fighting in recent days trying to break through Russian positions near the village of Verbove, about six miles east of Lobotin, which Russian forces recaptured last week.
The Blackbird Group, a volunteer group that analyzes satellite images of battlefields and social media content, said on Monday Ukrainian forces overcame obstacles and reached Russian infantry fighting positions on the outskirts of Verbove.
But analysts said the offensive, which has met with stiff resistance and come at a heavy cost in casualties and equipment but has been incremental, did not necessarily mean territory had been secured.
Ukrainian military officials, meanwhile, refrained from making any blanket claims.
Oleksandr Shtupun, a military spokesman for southern Ukraine, told state television that the Russian trenches and bunkers that Kiev's forces are currently encountering near Verbove “are not as strong as the first line of defense.” But he said Russian minefields would make it harder for Ukraine to advance, and military analysts have suggested Russia may have strengthened the defenses on the outskirts of Lobotyn with additional troops.
Ukrainian forces achieved stunning success in the early stages of the war, seizing the capital, Kiev, in late March last year and pushing Russian forces back, then driving them out of vast swathes of land they had occupied in northeast Ukraine in September and again from the south two months later.
The remains of a destroyed Russian armored convoy in the village of Dmitrivka outside Kiev in April 2022. Photo by Daniel Berehlak for The New York Times
But the counteroffensive, which began almost three months ago, is a different matter: the attack was expected for so long that Russian forces had plenty of time to fortify positions, erect barriers, lay mines and make large areas vulnerable to any wrong move.
Ukrainian forces are seeking to retake territory in the south and east of the country. In the south, the goal is to reach the Sea of ​​Azov and drive a wedge into Russian-occupied territories, with the main efforts so far being made towards the city of Melitopol.
Last week's recapture of Lobotyn marked a major milestone in Ukraine's efforts to cut off Moscow's supply lines to occupied Crimea, but Kiev's forces still have a long way to go. The current push east from Lobotyn to Verbove is aimed at widening the gap in Russia's layered defenses, two military analysts, Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, wrote in a paper published Monday.
They said widening that breakthrough was important because “a narrow advance could leave forces vulnerable to counterattacks from the flank.” A wider gap would also allow Ukrainian forces to bring in more equipment and personnel to support their advance south.
The strategic objective of the offensive appears to be the city of Tokmok, a road and rail hub about 15 miles south of Lobotaine. To reach the city, Ukrainian forces would need to completely penetrate the defenses around Verbove and then penetrate another layer of defenses.
This suggests a slow war of attrition that could take several more months and result in heavy casualties on both sides.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was visiting the front line again on Tuesday, the latest in what appeared to be a series of visits aimed at boosting morale among soldiers fighting a bloody, slow-burning war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Shirsky, met with commanders in the Bakhmut region on Wednesday. Photo released by the Presidential Administration. Credit: Presidential Press Service of Ukraine
Zelenskiy said he was visiting a combat brigade fighting near the eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces captured in the spring after nearly a year of fighting. Ukrainian forces have since managed to retake some territory around Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian presidential office said the Ukrainian president discussed “the forces' problems and needs”, including the provision of artillery shells and air defence missiles.
“It is extremely important to support our fighters and to be in contact with brigade and battalion commanders,” Zelenskiy said in an evening video address late Monday, reporting that he had visited 11 brigades in Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts that day.
The issue of ammunition also came up during a visit to troops in Donetsk on Monday, where commanders cited a growing demand for drones and “counter-drone weapons,” personnel shortages in troops and shortages of certain types of ammunition, according to Zelenskiy's office.
— Constant Mew and Thomas Gibbons-Neff