When we conduct media research at Kantar Emor, people of all ages, nationalities and education levels say they are overwhelmed with information and find it difficult to comprehend it. “It feels like we're being flooded,” said a woman in her 30s in a focus group discussion about the feeling of enduring the daily barrage of information from smartphones, televisions, computers and smartwatches.
One way to navigate this deluge of information is to turn to trusted experts, opinion leaders, and other influencers to analyze and make sense of it.
Opinion leaders are not a new phenomenon. At the beginning of the last century, French sociologist Gabriel Tarde wrote about how people's opinions are influenced by everyday events and personal opinions. Sociologists Katz and Lazarsfeld described in the 1950s how opinion leaders convey the media's messages to the less-informed parts of society. They described opinion leaders as intermediaries between the media and the rest of society.
When people are asked in opinion polls whose opinions they trust, they mention not only public figures such as politicians, scientists and businessmen, but also their loved ones, colleagues and family members.
In recent years, a new category of opinion leaders seems to have emerged. We can call them opinion influencers. These are opinion leaders whose opinions are heavily promoted or at least amplified by social media. Examples include Tiet Karmus, Rainer Sachs, and Igor Taro in reporting on the Ukrainian war, and Christy Saleh, Jaak Roessare, and Laivo Hein in financial literacy.
In every field, from horticulture and psychology to warfare and medicine, there are influential figures who synthesize, simplify, and provide overviews of information that others lack the time or expertise to analyze on their own.
To give an example of the war in Ukraine from the recently completed Estonian Integrated Monitoring, initially people were craving information about the war and spent hours searching the web for information.
As the war dragged on, this type of media quickly became irrelevant because it was time-consuming and emotionally draining. However, the desire to keep up with the developments in the conflict remained, and this was made possible by people writing summaries on social media. Readers felt they could get the information they needed quickly and comprehensively, without spending too much time on analysis.
Compared to traditional news, people appreciate these summaries because they provide the author's personal analysis and perspective.
In qualitative research, young people often say they don't need to follow traditional news or seek out original sources because social media is full of interesting and influential people whose opinions they respect and trust. They feel they can get everything they need from social media.
Young opinion leaders are often globally famous stars or people nobody in Estonia has heard of, such as influencers who are around the same age as our readers in Hong Kong or the US.
A double-edged sword
But relying on opinion influencers can be a double-edged sword: Expert advice can help us make better financial decisions, be better parents, or stay up to date on important war news, but social media allows anyone to call themselves an expert, including those whose arguments defy natural and physical laws and those with mixed moral values ​​(think Andrew Tate).
Despite this, or perhaps because of it, they may have large followings on social media: Unlike traditional journalism, which is judged on objectivity, independence and balance, these standards are not relevant on social media.
In various surveys, we asked people what they thought were the most distinctive features of opinion leaders. It is often said that opinion leaders are people who bring new and interesting information and whose thoughts reflect their own beliefs. “They have a similar view of the world and life,” said a man who took part in a media survey commissioned by the Ministry of Culture.
In other words, people want opinion leaders to make statements that fit into the context of their existing knowledge and beliefs, which explains why opinion leaders can present flat Earth beliefs as evidence-based and still be seen as credible and influential figures in their circles.
Opinion Leaders in the Mirror
Sociologists Katz and Lazarsfeld, in their early studies of the influence of opinion leaders in the 1950s, concluded that people make choices that they believe others like themselves would make. This is what we saw in focus groups with people who tend to trust alternative news on Telegram.ee over their doctors, or prefer the Objektiiv portal over public broadcasting. People want opinion leaders like themselves, and social media's ability to offer something for everyone is both its blessing and its curse.
What do those who influence public opinion get out of the task of processing and making meaning of information?
Many say it is a contribution to society and charity. At the same time, it is also a public relations exercise, aimed at strengthening one’s image as an expert, which may benefit them in other ways. For example, journalist and war blogger Igor Tallo is now a member of the Riigikogu, and security expert Rainer Sachs is running for the European Parliament. They were respected opinion leaders before the war, but expressing their opinions on social media did not make them experts. But social media has undoubtedly given them a forum and amplified their message.
Another example: Tiet Karmas was not a household name before the war, but those around him still benefited from his detailed social media posts. Today, study participants call him a thought leader, and thousands of people eagerly await his briefings on the Ukraine war.
By collecting, analysing and making sense of information, opinion influencers make our jobs somewhat easier, helping us sort through the chaos of information people feel they have to deal with every day. However, it has become even more important to select opinion influencers and trailblazers well, and to ensure that the conclusions they draw are consistent with the conclusions people would reach if they were to critically analyse the information for themselves.
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