Top Line
Former President Donald Trump's hush money trial has done little to change public perception of the allegations against him, with most voters saying the outcome of the trial will not affect their decision to vote in November, according to polls conducted before the trial began in April and others conducted after the trial ended.
Former US President Donald Trump arrived in Washington for the hush money trial and told the media: [+] Manhattan Criminal Court, New York City, May 28, 2024. (Photo by Julia Nickinson Pool/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
The percentage of voters who believe Trump acted illegally by concealing the hush money payments to cover up his alleged affairs was the same in Quinnipiac University polls released on April 24, one week after Trump's trial began, and on May 22, 46%.
The same set of polls also found that slightly more Trump voters in May (68%) said a conviction would not change their voting decision in November compared to April (62%).
While surveys have shown that the outcome of the case will not affect the voting decisions of the vast majority of respondents, any shift in voter sentiment could threaten the election chances of either President Trump or Joe Biden, whose approval ratings are within single digits of each other.
A Yahoo/YouGov poll found that the percentage of voters who say Trump committed a crime rose slightly, by 9 points, from March (38%) to May (47%), though the same group's January survey also found that 47% believe Trump is guilty in the case.
A consistent theme throughout the trial has been that voters are deeply divided on whether they think the defendants should be convicted and whether they will be found guilty: A New York Times/Siena poll in mid-April found 46% said they should be convicted, while 37% said they should not be convicted.
Meanwhile, a CBS/YouGov poll conducted May 14-21 found that 52% think he probably or definitely will be found guilty, while 48% think he probably or definitely will not be found guilty.
Big numbers
That's 1.1% of the vote that Trump is leading Biden nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics polling tracker. On the same day before the 2020 election, Biden had a 5.3-point lead.
Main Background
Closing arguments began Tuesday in the Manhattan Trump hush-money case. The case charges Trump with 34 felony counts of falsifying records of his defense of former lawyer Michael Cohen and of falsifying records of restitution for payments Cohen allegedly made to porn actress Stormy Daniels in exchange for her keeping quiet about her affair with Trump. Prosecutors allege that Trump committed the crimes, which would normally be misdemeanors, to tilt the outcome of the 2016 presidential election in his favor. Jurors heard live testimony from both Daniels and Cohen, who argued that Trump was directly involved in the scheme and knew the fees were being fraudulently recorded as legal services. Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges, denying the allegations of infidelity and arguing, without evidence, that he was charged at Biden's behest to improve his chances of winning the November presidential election.
tangent
The Biden campaign held a press conference outside Trump's trial on Tuesday, essentially avoiding any mention of Trump's legal issues, apparently to avoid accusations that it is trying to influence the outcome of the case. Actor Robert De Niro, who narrated a Biden campaign ad criticizing Trump released last week, spoke on Biden's behalf on January 6, along with police officers Michael Fanone and Harry Dunn.
References
Why a hush-money conviction could cost Trump the election (Forbes)
Closing arguments in Trump trial: Ex-president's lawyers claim perjury, prosecution fights back (live updates) (Forbes)
Biden campaign finally uses Trump hush money lawsuit to attack Robert De Niro (Forbes)
