There is an almost irrational frenzy on the right over the 2024 election, with many believing President Biden is so unpopular and Democrats are in a state of panic, “panic mode,” that victory is all but inevitable.
But with control of the Senate at stake, Republicans should remember what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. Then, as now, the Senate districts were tilted in Republican favor, and Biden was one of the most unpopular presidents since World War II. Republicans expected a red wave to return to power. Instead, they witnessed Biden perform better in the midterm elections than any president since John F. Kennedy.
The mastermind behind this debacle was Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who mismanaged the Republican National Senatorial Committee, squandered nearly $180 million on consultants and self-promotion while vacationing on a luxury yacht in Italy, and virtually emptied the NRSC's coffers in the final months of the campaign. The committee canceled ad buys in key battleground states, $13 million loan By September, they were raising enough money to cover operating expenses, and Scott's failure to intervene in the primary left Republicans with an unelectable candidate who was losing elections that they could win state by state.
After leaving the NRSC $20 million in debt and Democrats expanding their majority, Scott announced he would run for Senate Republican leadership. His candidacy gives new meaning to the phrase “climbing the ladder.”
Unless Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who is left to clean up Scott's mistakes, succeeds where Scott failed miserably, Republicans will not have a majority. And the new NRSC chairman is warning Republicans that if they fail again, they will not have a chance to win control of the Senate for a decade or more.
Daines pointed out in an interview at his campaign office that in 2024, Republicans will not defend seats in states won by Biden, while Democrats will defend three seats in states won by Donald Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, West Virginia) and five seats in states won by Biden by 5 points or less (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan). In addition, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (Republican) has unexpectedly announced his candidacy in a Democratic-held seat. Daines' chief of staff, Darin Thacker, encouraged Hogan to run the old-fashioned way, with a heartfelt letter. Hogan is fighting for a Democratic-held seat, which means he has nine good race chances.
But Daines warned that the window of opportunity will close after November.
“I was an executive at Procter & Gamble for 13 years,” he says. “They teach you how to think strategically, how to lead, and how to evaluate opportunities and risks 'looking over the horizon.'” So he looked at the 2026 Senate district map. “That night, I saw zero Republican states and Democrats won, and that's when things started to get really quiet.” [for reelection] “By '26,” he said, and then looked ahead to 2028, “it's going to be even quieter, down to zero.”
In other words, if Republicans fail to recapture the majority in this election, “we're likely to remain in the minority until 2030,” he said.
He explained that the drought could actually last longer if Democrats win the Senate, the House and the presidency, which is unlikely but not impossible given the Democrats' recent record of upsets. If that happens, “the filibuster will go away,” he said. The filibuster only survived the first two years of the Biden administration, when Democrats had unified control of the government, because two Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin III (West Virginia) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona), saved it.
“They'll both retire,” he said. Without the filibuster, Democrats could add to the Senate by making Washington and Puerto Rico states, which would “permanently add four Democratic senators.” They could ram through HR1 and rewrite federal voting rules to favor their party, which would mean “no voter ID requirements” and “vote-by-mail elections everywhere.” Finally, they could add to the Supreme Court with additional justices who support the power grab, he said.
He's determined that won't happen. Unlike Scott, who couldn't get involved in the primaries, Daines made sure that Republicans nominated the candidates most likely to win in key states. “If you look at the election cycle, filing date is just as important as election date,” he says. “So we weren't afraid to get actively involved in the primaries, because the stakes are just too high to just sit back and watch it all unfold.”
Daines sought to find a so-called “attractive conservative” who possessed Reagan-like qualities and who could “appeal to independents as well as Republicans.” [who] The outcome of this tough election will be decided by
“The public craves it,” he said. “The winners make the policy, the losers go home.”
Daines was an early supporter of Trump and worked with the former president to secure the endorsements of these candidates. Trump supported Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana, former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, David McCormick in Pennsylvania (who lost to Mehmet Oz in the 2022 presidential election), and businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.
His track record as a recruiter isn't perfect. In Ohio, Democrats are repeating their strategy of backing successful “poison pill” MAGA candidates in the 2022 election, spending more than $2.5 million to boost Trump-backed Sen. Sherrod Brown with ads calling him “too conservative for Ohio.” The RealClearPolitics average has Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leading by 5 points in a state where Trump has a 10-point lead.
And in Arizona, Republicans nominated the disastrous Kali Lake, a symbol of Republican failure in the 2022 midterm elections, but she lost a winnable gubernatorial race. Lake is so unpopular that far-left Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego is leading Lake by 7 points in the RCP average in a state where Trump leads by 4 points.
Despite these setbacks, Daines has put Republicans in a good position to pick up seats this year. The West Virginia race is “all but over,” Daines said, meaning the Senate will be at least 50-50, barring a surprise Republican defeat. Republicans only need to win one more seat to secure a majority.
Daines predicts that “Trump will win by 15 to 20 points” in his home state of Montana, which would help Sheehy's campaign to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (Democrat). Trump's 10-point lead in Ohio could help Moreno. In Michigan, “Biden has serious problems.” Arab-American voters in Dearborn, as well as members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, “are very concerned about a Biden win.” [about] “With what's going on right now with the Biden administration mandating EVs,” Daines said, “nobody has Maryland on their dance card.”
Daines also said Biden has a big problem with not only the swing vote, but also with his own base: “The Senate race could be down by a point or two on election night. I think that's going to be a real problem for Democrats when you look at how Biden and the Democrats are struggling right now with minority voters, including African-Americans, Hispanics and Jews.”
If Daines could do that, he would instantly become the nominee to lead a new Senate majority. Trump has already endorsed Daines. But for now, Daines said, “I don't want to be a leader, frankly. I'm focused on getting the majority back.”
“The stakes couldn't be higher and failure is not an option,” he added.
“If President Trump wins, it will be important that this new Senate majority has the ability to work closely and successfully with the new administration,” he said. “I can serve in that position in a number of different ways, but I'm focused here on winning the majority and on getting policy wins after President Trump is elected along with the Republican majority in the Senate.”
One thing is for sure: If the person who wins the Senate majority enters the leadership race, the man who lost two years ago has no chance of winning.
