Mexico is holding crucial elections on Sunday, with control of Congress, thousands of local offices and the presidency at stake. It is unclear whether Claudia Scheinbaum, the candidate from President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's Morena party, or Xochitl Gálvez, a former senator running under the banner of an opposition coalition, wins, but it could see Mexico crown its first female president.
But the weeks leading up to the vote have been grim in tone and substance, and rightly so: Lopez Obrador's five years in power have taken a toll on Mexico's democracy and its institutions, including the courts and press. Mexico can only hope that whoever wins the next election will steer the country toward a more constructive style of politics.
Lopez Obrador has illegally interfered in the election campaign. In his morning press conferences, he has consistently ignored Mexico's constitution, which prohibits the president from taking partisan positions or commenting on the election of his successor. On Monday, he described Sunday's vote as a referendum. “This is not just about choosing authorities or parties, but about choosing the national project we want,” he said. Lopez Obrador's interference has been punished multiple times by Mexico's highest electoral body, the Federal Electoral Tribunal. In response, he accused the court of orchestrating a “technical coup.”
Unfortunately, Scheinbaum has bought into the illegitimate rhetoric of her political masters. When asked in a nationally televised forum whether she would accept the results of the election, she said: She said She plans to wait and see “how things progress.” (A few days ago, her opponent, Galvez, told me in an interview that she would “absolutely” respect the election results.)
This disregard for democratic norms is linked to another aspect of Lopez Obrador's governing style: a kind of cruelty driven by delusions of persecution.
During his time in office, Lopez Obrador has demonstrated a shocking lack of compassion for the victims of his country and has politicized every tragedy for his own purposes: victims of organized crime, mothers searching for their lost children, parents with cancer seeking treatment, victims of natural disasters, women seeking an end to sexual violence, and the list goes on. His attitude stands in stark contrast to the “humanism” he vowed to bring to Mexican public life.
This election season has only intensified this ugly trend.
Last week, a video shocked the country. It showed the final moments of 12-year-old Dante Emiliano, lying on the sidewalk in Paraíso, Tabasco, after being shot three times. “I don't want to die!” the boy cried as he felt his life slip away from him. The motive for the attack remains unclear; some suggest that Emiliano was meant to be kidnapped. All that is certain is that he died in hospital shortly thereafter.
The Tabasco boy's story infuriated all of Mexico — except, it seems, the president. After a few minutes of laying out the facts at a press conference, Lopez Obrador went on the defensive. “It's election season.” He said“They will do anything to harm me, the corrupt ones exaggerate everything related to violence.”
Lopez Obrador's ruthlessness masks serious political weaknesses. His government has done little to address the widespread violence and its effects. According to the government's own figures, 64 children are killed by guns every month in Mexico. During Lopez Obrador's five years in power, 12,368 minors were homicide victims. But instead of acknowledging the scale of the tragedy and correcting course, Lopez Obrador has resorted to the populist tactics that have served him so well so far: spreading conspiracy theories and intimidating his critics while doing little to solve the problems.
Scheinbaum again adopted her mentor's approach. “It's better to make suggestions than to criticize,” she told Ceci Flores, a leading member of the Mothers Searching for the Missing, recently as she stood outside the presidential palace hoping to meet with Lopez Obrador. Like many other victims who have asked to meet with the president, she was turned away.
On Sunday, Mexican voters will make a final decision on the direction of the country under President Lopez Obrador. Sheinbaum appears to have a substantial lead (though analysts tell me the margin could be closer than expected). If she wins, she will probably conclude that her leader's approach to politics — his callousness, his partisan polarization, his growing disregard for constitutional norms — is the secret to his victory. After all, Lopez Obrador's approval ratings have remained high throughout his presidency.
But it's possible that she chooses a different path. She can adopt a fresh, more respectable approach to politics and show voters, especially those who voted for the opposition, that she is an independent politician, independent of her predecessor. If she does, I hope that the opposition will come to terms with her and start building a better future. Mexico cannot afford another six years of being paralyzed by resentment.
