This being an election year, we've been following the activities of local politicians for months, but recent developments in the presidential election clearly require a change of direction in our commentary.
In a “hush money” trial, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records to influence the 2016 election. Meanwhile, Trump's most staunch opponent, Nikki Haley, announced that although she disagrees with Trump on many issues, she will vote for him because she believes he is a better candidate than incumbent President Joe Biden. How will these contrasting events affect Utah and the presidential election?
Pignanelli: “When voters go to the polls, they won't be thinking about the trials of Trump or Hunter Biden. They'll be pondering inflation or foreign policy. This ruling is not their concern.” — Julia Manchester, The Hill
The smallest unit of measurement used in science is the “Planck length.” This tiny metric represents the infinitesimal impact of a jury's decision in a presidential election.
Since 1892, two former presidents have not competed in a general election. So Americans know the candidates, and the complexities of recent court deliberations are not going to shake entrenched opinions. Concerns about felony convictions, which polls currently suggest, will soon fade. The tiny minority of voters in the battleground states that will decide the election care about issues other than affairs with adult film stars and technical violations of federal election law. So a one-time plank length is a generous concession.
Haley's no-endorsement was expected, as she was not expected to vote for Biden. Haley's popularity in Utah may help improve Trump's image.
The “Planck length” could help explain slight differences in the outcome of November's election.
Webb: Most Republicans, including many moderate and mainstream Republicans who, like me, don't like Trump, believe the trial was unfair from the start and, in the words of the Wall Street Journal editorial board (a frequent critic of Trump), an “act of legal and political malfeasance.”
After all, some moderate Republicans are more likely to vote for Trump today than they were before the trial. It's hard to turn a totally shameless man into a martyr, but the Democrats, prosecutors, judge and jury have managed to do just that in this horrible case. It looks like it's going to end in a victory for Trump.
I still don't like Donald Trump, but I also hate how he's been mistreated so many times by the Democratic Party, the traditional news media, and the Washington establishment. That makes me more likely to hold my nose and vote for him. I don't want to waste my vote on a no-name or third-party candidate, so my choices are either Trump or Biden (who I think was a terrible president). It's a depressing dilemma: who should I vote for when the only real choices are almost equally unpleasant?
Trump has tried to broaden his base beyond his traditional base. He held a rally in the Bronx. He spoke at the Libertarian National Convention. He has sought the support of black and Hispanic voters. Will he succeed?
Pignanelli: Polls show Trump's popularity is growing among many demographics. Inflation hits minority groups hardest, and Biden is being held responsible. It's a smart move to explore this, since Trump's base tolerates anything he says or does. Trump has nothing to lose by encouraging distrust of Biden among these voters. And other demographics that are suspicious of Trump (such as suburban women) may appreciate his willingness to expand.
Webb: If the polls are right, Trump is certainly making inroads with some traditional Democratic voters. He only needs a few percentage points to make a real impact in an election. That such a flawed Republican can be popular with the public and even with Democrats shows how badly the Democrats have misread the public's mood and the wishes of their voters.
Trump is expected to choose his running mate in the coming weeks. Will that make a difference for Utah voters?
Pignanelli: Utah is a Republican-leaning state, so the final outcome will likely be the same no matter who Trump picks. But there will be a lot of interest in how the primary voter base responds. Senator Tim Scott is popular in Utah. Because of the controversy over the ruling, many local politicians are predicting a female vice presidential candidate. It would be historic if all three major presidential candidates nominated women. Will we see a new social media movement like #PickHer?
Webb: Vice presidential candidates rarely make much of a difference, but Trump might get some boost among moderate voters if he picks a more mainstream Republican rather than a right-wing firebrand. The bigger question is, would any self-respecting, intelligent Republican want to be vice president to Donald Trump, who demands absolute loyalty but is mercurial and disloyal himself? That would only be bad. Just ask Mike Pence.
Republican LaVar Webb is a former journalist, semi-retired small farmer and political consultant. Email: lwebb@exoro.com. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake City lawyer, lobbyist and political consultant who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature. Email: frankp@xmission.com.
