Nearly 245 days after Hamas kidnapped four Israeli hostages from an open-air music festival on October 7, 2023, they were freed in a daring Israeli special forces raid in broad daylight. Israel erupted in joy at the news that Noah Al-Ghamani, 26, Almog Meir Jan, 22, Andrei Kozlov, 27, and Shlomi Ziv, 41, were safe in the arms of their loved ones. That sentiment was shared by many around the world.
The hostage rescue is a victory for Israeli security agencies that had appeared bogged down in a long-running war with Hamas, and a tactical victory for the United States, which provided Israel with vital intelligence. The rescue of all 116 remaining hostages is a legitimate Israeli objective and a priority for the Biden administration, given that five of the hostages being held are US citizens.
There's still a lot we don't know about what happened as Israeli forces moved in and out of the congested Nuseirat neighborhood in central Gaza on Saturday. One key data point is the exact Palestinian death toll, which is, unfortunately, quite high. Hamas officials in Gaza have reported more than 200 dead, while Israeli sources say fewer than 100. Neither party has said how many were non-combatants or combatants. But what is clear is that Palestinian civilians lost their lives as Israeli forces, supported by tanks and airstrikes, operated in carefully selected combat zones. (One Israeli officer was killed in the fighting.)
What can be said with certainty is that if Hamas forces had not taken the hostages in the October 7 operation – in which they also deliberately killed hundreds of civilians – and had not deliberately held them in densely populated areas, all of those killed on Saturday would probably still be alive today.
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Just as surely, but the opposite reason for celebration, is the fact that the civilian death toll in Gaza is already too high. And the physical destruction of the strip by Israeli air and artillery bombardment of Hamas forces deep in the strip has been too extensive. A few dozen food trucks can enter Gaza a day, but Israel continues to impose strict conditions on the transport of humanitarian supplies, and aid falls far short of what is needed. Perhaps most importantly, lawlessness and war continue to impede the distribution of aid. Two UN agencies said Wednesday that if the fighting continues, at least 1 million Palestinians in Gaza are on the brink of starvation by mid-July, nearly half the strip's pre-war population of 2.3 million.
These numbers speak to the enormous human toll, especially on children in Gaza, and the urgency of a halt to the fighting. There is a way to achieve that, at least temporarily: the plan announced by President Biden. Under the plan, a six-week ceasefire would allow for a surge in humanitarian aid and an initial exchange of Hamas hostages (Israel believes 41 of 116 have been killed) with hundreds of Palestinian militants held in Israeli prisons, as well as Israel's withdrawal from populated areas. Two subsequent phases would allow for a more permanent ceasefire, eventual hostage release, and talks on reconstruction.
Biden said it was “Israeli's” plan, a claim quickly undermined by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government's insistence on conditions. Netanyahu is unwilling to agree to embark on a path to a permanent ceasefire while Hamas controls Gaza. Opposition leader Benny Gantz resigned from Israel's war cabinet on Sunday in protest at the prime minister's lack of a long-term plan to end the war and free all the hostages, a sign of Israeli frustration with Netanyahu's continued stance even after the hostage rescue.
But the plan supported by Biden is the most feasible one Israel has ever considered. Meanwhile, Hamas is resisting, with its military leader in the Gaza Strip, Yehya Sinwar, reportedly telling Arab mediators that he will accept nothing less than a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal. This is despite the suffering of the people of Gaza and despite Qatar's threats to oust Hamas' political leaders and freeze their assets. On Sunday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called Hamas the biggest obstacle to an agreement, telling CBS News' Margaret Brennan that “if Hamas says yes, better days for the Palestinian people will begin to unfold.”
It is unclear how Saturday's hostage rescue will affect the prospects for a deal. Netanyahu's confidence in a military victory and Hamas' determination to avenge a humiliating defeat could harden both sides' positions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to the Middle East this week for more unlikely negotiations. Palestinians, and those who sincerely want better days for Israel, will wish him success.
