A vast swath of northern Israel was ablaze after Hezbollah fired rockets into the area on the night of June 3. The raging fires have burned more than 3,000 acres.
These events are a stark reminder that the prolonged war in Gaza is not only devastating for the people of Gaza and threatening the lives of hostages held by Hamas, but also has serious repercussions for northern Israel, much of which has become an abandoned war zone since October. It is increasingly clear that without a ceasefire, the situation on the northern border could rapidly deteriorate and escalate into all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
The two fronts have been connected since the war began: Hezbollah entered the conflict on Oct. 8, shelling Israeli military positions in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights less than 24 hours after a Hamas attack from Gaza. Israel has since been locked in a bitter war of attrition that has seen an almost daily exchange of missiles, armed drones and rockets, calling for a constant buildup of military power and resources.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly said that Hezbollah will continue its attacks as long as fighting in Gaza continues. The group has suggested that even if fighting in Gaza pauses, Israel would withdraw at least temporarily, as it did during a one-week halt in fighting late last year. Any agreement to stabilize the situation in the north would depend on a definitive resolution of the Gaza conflict being acceptable to Hamas. Even then, displaced Israelis are understandably skeptical that a ceasefire and subsequent diplomatic agreement can restore security, and so are calling for major military action.
The resolution cannot come too soon for the more than 60,000 Israelis who once lived within five kilometers of the Lebanese border and were evacuated by the Israeli government last fall. Thousands more have left the area on their own since then. The mass evacuation of Israeli civilians and the creation of a de facto buffer zone have had serious consequences, allowing Hezbollah to fire more freely into northern towns such as Kiryat Shmona, Metula and Margariot without causing civilian casualties, which could have sparked acute tensions.
But many homes and infrastructure remain damaged, and tens of thousands of Israelis who have taken refuge in hotels still have no idea if, when, or under what conditions they will be able to return to their homes. As the school year draws to a close and people need to make plans for the fall, many have no idea if they will be able to return to their normal lives. Some have opted to leave their hotels and emigrate for at least another year. Many are struggling financially as their businesses cannot function. The government has not given them a timeline or plan.
Hezbollah's entry into the war is significant. The group is a key part of Iran's so-called resistance axis that also includes the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and Islamic Jihad and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, and has worked tirelessly to consolidate its influence since the second Lebanon war in 2006. But the costs of further escalation for both sides will be immeasurably higher than in the last conflict.
Yet Israel's political class prioritizes defeating Hamas in the Gaza Strip, despite Hezbollah's much more powerful arsenal. Israel claims to have made significant tactical gains against Hezbollah in its border security efforts. But the number of drones and rockets fired from Lebanon has steadily increased (May saw the most attacks since October), and it is probably much more dangerous to wander around the nearly deserted northern towns than the cities near Gaza.
Hezbollah attacks have become increasingly sophisticated with technologically advanced drones and precision-guided munitions, suggesting that Israel’s vaunted “tactical achievements” have not dented the group’s capabilities. These advances may also suggest something more sinister: Hezbollah may believe it is accumulating strategic gains that outweigh its losses. This situation creates a terrifying laboratory, giving Hezbollah the opportunity to carefully study Israel’s defense and surveillance systems over an extended period of time. Hezbollah is clearly seeking and finding Israeli weaknesses, then penetrating and overwhelming its defenses with a multi-pronged and diverse attack.
That's why, for example, a Hezbollah drone struck a military position on May 6, killing two Israeli soldiers, despite the site being considered a protected facility, according to the head of an Israeli reserve brigade. He said the site was targeted from a specific angle, likely reflecting prior intelligence about the position. And it's likely why at least two armed drones targeted soldiers stationed in the Israeli Druze village of Furfeish on June 5 without sirens, killing one soldier and wounding nine more.
In other words, Hezbollah may be preparing for an all-out war with Israel, and its first and main action would be to weaken and cripple Israeli defenses.
Israeli military and political officials insist that the war in Gaza cannot be stopped, not only because Hamas has not yet been completely defeated, but also because of what it means for Israel's power projection in the region, especially vis-à-vis Hezbollah and Iran. Many Israeli officials believe that a new war with Hezbollah is only a matter of time. Far-right politicians have now begun calling for an invasion of Lebanon.
But the reality on the ground tells a different story. The military, accustomed to short wars, seems tired. So does the Israeli public, who are hoping for a new government. And if Israel has not been able to dismantle Hamas, a much smaller and less formidable enemy, after eight months of war and almost 17 years of blockade of Gaza, how can they expect to defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon, albeit at a cost to soldiers and civilian lives? Continuing on the current trajectory of escalating retaliatory attacks is also dangerous, not only because of what Hezbollah is learning, but also because miscalculations over the expanding battlefield and the power of the weapons used constantly increase the risk of an all-out war, even if no one wants it.
That may be one reason why Benjamin Netanyahu's war cabinet endorsed the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which is believed to be the same one recently outlined by President Biden and passed by UN resolution this week. While Netanyahu remains unclear about whether he would formally accept Biden's proposal, members of his war cabinet (one of whom has since resigned) likely understood the urgency of freeing the hostages, as well as the longer the war of attrition with Hezbollah continued, the greater the chance that Israel would become embroiled in a more serious conflict — and one not at a time of Israel's choosing.
A ceasefire in Gaza would almost certainly bring calm to the north, give the military some much-needed rest, pave the way for residents to return to their homes and open the door to the possibility of a diplomatic understanding between Israel and Lebanon.
