Whatever happens next, it will be remembered as one of the boldest gambles in modern French history. President Emmanuel Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and hold general elections on June 30 and July 7 gives the far-right the biggest chance of taking control of France for the first time since the Vichy government after World War II.
The move surprised French political circles, including Macron's top officials, who reportedly kept the president's plans closely guarded. And for many in France, the decision remains puzzling. For those most affected by the far-right regime, especially immigrants and the descendants of recent immigrants, the news is downright frightening. Macron, who has a penchant for ignoring common sense, will surely hope that the move will work in his favor. But make no mistake: France is in danger.
In many ways, Macron's domestic policy was already in crisis. The failure of his electoral coalition to win a majority in the National Assembly in the 2022 parliamentary elections forced it to seek support from other parties, notably the right-wing Republicans. At times, the government ignored parliament altogether. But the administration relied on the party's support for much of its work.
The historic victory of Marine Le Pen's National Rally in Sunday's European Parliament elections (it won 31% of the vote, more than double the president's party) threatened that arrangement. If the National Assembly had not been dissolved, the National Rally would have continued to increase pressure on the Republicans, seeking to charm conservative supporters and punish party leaders who tacitly support the president. The possibility of a lame-duck presidency would have only increased.
The new elections are an attempt to save Macron's second term. He may genuinely believe that voters will give him a new majority in parliament, hoping that his older and wealthier base will turn out to the polls again in much larger numbers than the younger and working-class voters who are less sympathetic to his presidency. Deep-rooted hostility between left-wing parties and a general fear that the far right will take power may also work in his favour.
But there's also a more cynical way to look at Macron's gamble. As France's far-right gains strength, its various obsessions, driven by a newly sympathetic media environment and, in some cases, provocative legislation, become more likely to win the presidential election in 2027. Against this backdrop, Macron's tactic can also be seen as an attempt to thwart the march on the Élysée Palace by, counterintuitively, allowing the National Rally to take power.
In other words, the move may be a final attempt to unravel the party's anti-establishment appeal, perhaps by bringing it into the messy real world of policymaking as part of a broader coalition government. By this logic, even the prospect of the Rally National winning an absolute majority and appointing its own prime minister could be seen as something of a worthwhile sacrifice. Better to have Jordan Bardet, a rising star of the Rally National, as prime minister than Le Pen.
Such a scenario is not impossible, and there is every reason to believe that Macron's party will struggle in this summer's elections. For one, he is extremely unpopular. Many in the country see him as an unrealistic leader who prioritizes the interests of the wealthy, and the past two years have worked against him. After a tumultuous first term in power, he pushed through a highly controversial increase in the retirement age and a crackdown on unemployment benefits in his second. His approval rating currently hovers around 30%, lower than President Biden's.
Moreover, France's so-called Republican Front — a tradition in which voters and parties join forces to back candidates who oppose the far right — is dying. Much of the blame lies with Mr. Macron. Because he and his allies chose not to back left-wing candidates en masse against the Rally National in the last parliamentary elections, left-wing voters are much less likely to vote for him this time. His government has clamped down on civil liberties, vilified progressives, and passed an immigration bill that Ms. Le Pen hailed as an “ideological victory.”
Now he seems happy to embrace the possibility of handing the keys to power to a party founded by a former Waffen-SS platoon member and a notorious colonial nostalgist who downplayed the Holocaust. Many voters may be wondering: What's the point of a republican front if the president has already decided the republic can embrace the far right? Republican leader Eric Ciotti seemed to have found the answer on Tuesday when he called for an alliance with the National Union.
Ciotti was widely denounced and expelled from the party, but he is riding the wave. The National Coalition is expected to win more votes than any other party. In addition to various victories in ideological battlegrounds, the party showed on Sunday that it is well capable of mobilizing its base in key elections. It could also benefit from a potential alliance with Reconquest, an even more radical party that rails against the destruction of wokeism and openly supports the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory.
But there's a wild card: While Macron's strategy seemed to rule out the possibility of an alliance between France's four biggest left-wing parties, within 24 hours the parties announced their intention to do just that, aiming to field a single candidate in each constituency under the banner of a new Popular Front, modelled on a 1936 electoral alliance formed amid fears of the rise of fascism.
The most recent parliamentary elections have demonstrated the strength of the French left when it is united. In 2022, a similar coalition won more seats than the Rally National and defeated Macron's coalition in many constituencies. This time, left-wing parties may also benefit from a more uncompromising opposition to Le Pen and Bardella. A strong showing for the left could completely change the dynamics of the electoral contest. At the very least, we cannot expect the far-right to easily take power.
In 2017, then-candidate Macron announced his bold intention to “eradicate the anger” that fueled support for the National Rally. Seven years later, it seems fair to say he failed. He may be remembered for very different reasons, not as a principled opponent of the far right but as its reckless supporters in chief.
