JERUSALEM — The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty signed by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on Wednesday is just the latest manifestation of one of the most ominous and worrying trends in world affairs today: Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are working to varying degrees to challenge the U.S.-led rules-based international order.
This is a far cry from the “axis of evil,” the unfortunate term President George W. Bush used to describe Iran, Iraq, and North Korea to justify the invasion of Iraq. These countries have little to do with each other; far from being allies, Iran and Iraq were enemies who fought a bloody war in the 1980s. Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, whom I met with on Thursday, offered a better way to describe the current situation. He calls it an “alliance of evil,” a term that accurately captures the dynamics of the situation.
The four autocracies in question — Russia, Iran, North Korea and China — do not constitute a formal security alliance like NATO or the old Warsaw Pact, but they are broadly united in their desire to challenge the United States and its allies, from Ukraine to Israel to South Korea.
North Korea has provided Russia with dozens of short-range missiles and 5 million artillery shells to use in attacking Ukraine. In return, Russia, which once supported international sanctions against North Korea's weapons of mass destruction programs, vetoed a UN Security Council resolution in March authorizing the creation of an independent panel of experts to monitor North Korea's compliance with sanctions. More importantly, Russia is expected to provide North Korea with economic aid (such as cheap oil and gas) and technical assistance to upgrade its nuclear and missile arsenals. Thus, while North Korea's aid makes Russia more dangerous to Ukraine, Russian aid is likely to make North Korea more dangerous to South Korea, Japan, and the United States.
Another supplier of arms to Russia is Iran. Iran has sent artillery shells, drones, ballistic missiles, and even opened a factory in Russia to produce the Shahed suicide drone. In return, Tehran says it will get Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and other Russian military equipment it needs to bolster its armed forces. Russia has even launched an Iranian satellite into orbit.
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The military ties represent a further deepening of ties between Moscow and Tehran, which have grown ever since Putin decided in 2015 to send Russian air forces to support Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and brutally crush the uprising against his rule. Russia's intervention turned the tide of the Syrian civil war and consolidated Assad's power. It also led to closer ties between Russia and the Iranian terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which sent its troops to fight for Assad.
Unlike North Korea or Iran, China does not appear to be supplying Russia with military equipment, but it has provided microchips, machine tools, and other dual-use components so Russian factories can continue building weapons for Ukraine. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress last month: “China's supplies of dual-use parts and materials to the Russian defense industry are one of the factors that helped tilt the balance in Moscow's favor on the Ukrainian battlefield and accelerated Russia's military rebuild after its enormously costly invasion.”
One should not exaggerate the degree of cooperation in the “alliance of evil” or ignore the real conflicts and frictions that exist beneath the surface. Beijing, for example, cannot be very happy to see its ally in Pyongyang getting so close to Moscow, thereby diminishing Chinese influence in North Korea. Meanwhile, Beijing and Moscow are at odds over a proposed gas pipeline from Russia to China. Putin is desperate to sell China the gas that he can no longer sell to Europe, but the Siberia-2 pipeline project is stalled because Xi Jinping has not committed to buying as much gas as Russia wants to sell at the price Russia wants.
But we should not ignore the growing threat the West faces from hostile alliances. The democratic world must respond with as much unity as the autocracies are showing. A good first step would be to strengthen cooperation among U.S. allies in Europe and Asia. There is already considerable movement in this direction: last year's NATO summit was attended by the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, and these Pacific nations have also been invited to attend next month's NATO summit in Washington.
All four Pacific nations have imposed sanctions on Russia and sent aid to Ukraine. South Korea and Japan have so far refused to provide direct military aid to Ukraine, but the Post reported in December that South Korea had sent artillery shells to the United States to give to Ukraine, and Japan News reported in February that Japan was sending ammunition for Patriot air defense systems to the United States to give to Ukraine.
Given that Russia now appears determined to strengthen the military capabilities of North Korea, thereby increasing the danger to Japan and South Korea, it would make sense for the two countries to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine. Australia already provides direct military assistance, but as retired Australian military officer Mick Ryan argues, Australia can and should do more.
Despite Russia's increasingly pro-Hamas stance, Israel has been the laggard among the world's democracies in supporting Ukraine. But Israel, bogged down in the war in Gaza and facing the possibility of a new one in Lebanon, can no longer afford to donate military equipment to Ukraine, but it can join the sanctions regime against Russia, which would be the perfect counterattack to Russian demands that the UN impose sanctions on Israel.
As the world's leading illiberal nations recognize their shared interests and band together to undermine the rules-based international order, the world's democracies must demonstrate at least as much determination in confronting the threat posed by the “alliance of evil.”
