If all goes according to plan, by this time next week the first presidential debate will be a thing of the past, and attention will return to November 5th and what matters most: the battle for control of the White House and Congress.
My hypothesis is that President Biden will emerge from the debates viewed as fit for the Oval Office, but as lacking tact and rhetoric. This assessment will be enough to convince voters who view the alternative candidate, former President Donald Trump, as the least fit man in America to be president in all his thoughts, words and actions.
The Biden-Trump clash will be resolved on Election Day, but for this voter at least, Trump is a settled issue, and has been so since he burst onto the presidential stage in 2016. I've been saying so ever since his abuse of presidential power and his vicious conversion of the Republican Party to his own cult over the past eight years have only served to reinforce what was obvious all along.
But it would be a mistake to get totally distracted by Biden and Trump. The fight for control of Congress is also crucial. Lose sight of Congress, and say goodbye to any influence over the laws that affect the life you want to lead. The House and Senate are not stately relics. They are places where the president's policies live and die.
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There is growing dissatisfaction among black voters and young progressives — core and important constituencies of the Democratic Party — that Biden is failing to deliver on the agenda he campaigned on, with policing, criminal justice and voting rights at the top of his priorities, and that his administration has failed to bring real change to the lives of people of color and those who have been marginalized.
These critics are shortsighted at best, blind as a bat at worst. They don't see the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, where Congress meets and processes the president's proposals. Take, for example, the George Floyd Police Justice Act, named after the 46-year-old black man killed by Minneapolis police in 2020. The bill, introduced in the House and supported by Biden, died in Congress.
That's because there weren't enough votes in Congress to support the bill, and because not enough Americans showed up to vote in the House and Senate elections to vote in favor of it.
Think congressional elections don't matter? Just ask former President Barack Obama. After his historic victory over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the 2008 presidential election, Obama watched his policies be thwarted by Republicans backed by anti-Obama conservatives in the 2010 midterm elections. That year, Republicans recaptured the House of Representatives and made significant gains in the Senate. Even after Obama was reelected in 2012, Republicans retained control of the House and had enough influence to thwart Obama's policies.
Moreover, after the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans recaptured the Senate by gaining nine seats. After the 2016 elections, Republicans retained the Senate and gained 247 seats in the House of Representatives. Had Hillary Clinton won the 2016 presidential election, she would have been going head-to-head with the Republican bloc in Congress.
So you're upset that Biden won't bring about substantive change on your terms? The worst case scenario is that you do nothing, Biden isn't re-elected, and Trump becomes president with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress. Think about it.
By all means, tune in to the debate next week, but think about what has to happen after Election Day.
