Tech funds have seen record inflows this week, according to Bank of America Investment Strategy and EPFR, and oil prices (BZ=F, CL=F) are rising. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA) shares were weak in Friday trading following a selloff on Thursday. What does the future hold for the semiconductor giant, and can its shares recover?
Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre covers the latest market trends for Friday, June 21st.
For more expert insights and the latest market trends, click here to watch the full episode of “Ask the Trends.”
This post was written by Nicholas Giacobino
Video Transcript
Major stock indexes ended little changed as tech stocks continued to attract attention.
Finances Jar brings you a recap of the trading day. We start with the record closing prices for tech stocks. This is very interesting to me because it's impossible not to take note of the price action this week.
no.
Sometimes we see a lot of flow, but we know the price.
You may find there is a lot of hidden selling there. This is the busiest day of the year for trading volume. Or it should be.
We haven't calculated the final dollar amount at this point, but if you want to sell a lot of technology, imagine Apple being sold for $10 billion a day to make room for NVIDIA and XL K. This week would be the week to do that.
The reports are for the last 5 days, so I think they go back to last week.
But here's Spike.
Well, this goes back to 2016, 2017.
That's $8.7 billion.
Michael Hartnett's team, who are tracking these trends, are calling them I-caps, which suggest an end of some kind.
But, as we all know, topping is a process.
One of the things I'm interested in is seasonality, and Josh and I were just talking about this the other day.
Well, seasonality favors the bulls in the first 10 days of July, and that is true across the market.
However, if you're looking for the quiet of summer, I think it's best to look after July.
Surrender means a different price than we've seen before.
But I think a sell-off could mean a number of different things, like what we see at the bottom of a bear market.
You'll see stocks doing this.
It will plummet and then rebound.
It's a different kind of surrender, but it can also be exhausting.
I am considering a buy that will end in a capitulation with some sort of upside.
It is interesting.
Now, let’s talk about the product.
Let's see if oil prices will surpass $80 a barrel.
So now let's display the graph.
This is WT I Crude Oil futures so far this year, but here is the pattern that interests me:
The story continues
This is the $80 price level that has been spending some time below the price level we indicated above.
Now we have come down.
The next logical move is to take off, but it needs a catalyst.
So what could be the catalyst?
Well, I was just talking to a guest about this, hurricane season is right around the corner, and OPEC+ is unlikely to make a difference, but it's possible.
Biden may try to take some action in an election year.
These things happen, but I think the risk of a hurricane is probably underestimated at this point.
The positioning in the oil market is very low, which means it could rise further.
Finally, we have XL E. Here's the line graph.
It's a multi-decade high, and you can see this high coincide with this high, and you can see this high coincide with this high, but it's going to take a while for this 16-year pattern to come into play.
But my question for you viewers is, what happens if I punch the top here?
But let me show you another graph.
Here, WT I Crude Oil Futures Energy can fluctuate within a very limited range because much of the stock price gains are returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.
interesting.
Well, it's not good news for the drivers, but maybe this summer that will happen, but we'll see about that.
And finally, we talk about how it has to be NVIDIA.
NVIDIA, as Josh often jokes, says that we have a contractual obligation to talk about the video on the show.
That's not actually the case, but it seems to be going that way.
yes.
Okay.
So, I would like to mention NVIDIA here.
I think this will be a Max chart.
That's just parabolic.
But here I want to focus on price fluctuations.
This candle has garnered a lot of attention.
That was yesterday.
It was a big red candle.
What did you call it earlier?
Weak-hearted.
This is to roll up the entire body of the candle before wrapping it.
It's hard to see there.
It's really small.
Plus, I overdrawn it, but it reminds me of this price fluctuation here.
That was in March.
This was the highest record ever.
We got a big red candle and managed to hang on for the next few months.
At least, if you're a big NVIDIA fan.
Perhaps this will create a potential buying opportunity.
Not necessarily right now.
But, you know, I'll also add that over the next few weeks, the option expiration is today, so it's going to be half the gamma.
That's a very strange term.
But the net effect for investors and people next week is that NVIDIA will start trading more freely.
Well, high gamma reduces volatility.
It's on the rise, but that will change next week.
We'll talk about NVIDIA again later.
no doubt.
Thank you so much, Jared.
