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Published on June 22, 2024 • Last updated 2 hours ago • 3 min read
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One of Jody Calahoo Stonehouse, Kathleen Ganley, Sarah Hoffman and Naheed Nenshi will be named the new leader of the Alberta NDP on June 22 in Calgary.
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The Alberta NDP is the only real political vehicle for the left in Alberta and is currently in the process of selecting a successor to Leader Rachel Notley. The leadership contestants owe it to Albertans to be fully transparent about their positions on the future of Alberta's hydrocarbon development and climate policy.
This doesn’t mean making the typical left-wing generalization that Alberta needs to follow a decarbonization of its economy as the only way to address climate change, nor does it mean ignoring the economic impacts that will come with it.
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Perhaps the most fundamental question is whether these candidates are prepared to stand up to a federal government that opposes Alberta's economic interests.
Whatever you think of Rachel Notley's performance as Premier of Alberta, you have to admit that she tried to reach reasonable compromises with the Trudeau-Butts government. She implemented carbon pricing as the preeminent climate policy tool. She did not resist unattainable federal emissions reduction targets that would only lead to the shrinking of Alberta's hydrocarbon production industry. She imposed emissions caps on the oil sands sector that some in the industry considered preferable to production caps. She phased out coal-based generation and mandated renewable energy capacity, regardless of the economic impact. She agreed to an “anti-pipeline” bill (Bill C69) without much opposition. But she did contribute significantly to saving the Trans Mountain Pipeline.
All of this happened at a time when commodity prices, especially oil, were volatile. That's good and bad for Notley, but it's hardly a legacy of resistance.
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In today's political climate, we expect more extreme climate policies from the Canadian left. So where do Alberta NDP leadership candidates stand on specific and enforceable emissions reduction mandates, or their opposition to federal regulatory barriers similar to the repeal of Bill C69? Will the costs of decarbonization to Albertans' affordability and reliability be taken into account?
Will Alberta insist that the carbon price imposed be in line with Canada's major trading partners, how much capital will be allocated to subsidize “green” technology and investment in Alberta, and how much will Albertans be asked to sacrifice in the name of “net zero”?
So far, there's been no clear direction on where any of the candidates stand on these most important issues, especially the likely front-runner, former Calgary mayor Nahid Nenshi.
Furthermore, these questions must be considered in light of the following realities:
• Whether or not Alberta is forced to cut production, global demand for hydrocarbons and the associated emissions will not be affected.
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• Emissions will increase over time as producers outside North America make up the shortfall caused by reduced production in Alberta.
• Despite almost 40 years of UN climate action, global demand for hydrocarbons remains at historically high levels, and certain energy-intensive industrial processes (such as petrochemical and cement production) depend on hydrocarbons for which there are no economic alternatives.
• Rich countries, including Canada, have not demonstrated a willingness to bear the enormous costs required to reach net zero, given that it would result in a 20% contraction in annual GDP, nor have they been amenable to imposing a carbon tax on existing consumption.
• The G7 countries have yet to agree on a uniform system of carbon pricing based on the net costs and benefits of continued consumption of hydrocarbons, let alone involving countries like China and India.
Finally, we cannot ignore the very real possibility that a fundamental change of administration in the United States this November will fundamentally disrupt existing UN climate action and reduce the avenues through which governments can intervene to support the energy transition.
These are questions that all Albertans should think about, but especially those in a federal government that has a blatant disinterest in rational climate and energy policy and is entirely opposed to Alberta's interests.
Dennis McConaghy, a former vice president of TransCanada (now TC Energy), recently published his third book, Carbon Change: Canada on the Brink of Decarbonization.
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