The conventional wisdom is that the Republican Party is divided into two factions: the Reaganites, who still cling to old ideas of American leadership on the world stage, and the populist MAGA faction, who are deeply skeptical of American global leadership and want to retreat to fortress America.
This conventional wisdom is completely wrong. In fact, the opposite seems to be true: populist MAGA Republicans are actually more supportive of strong U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs than mainstream Republicans.
That's the shocking finding of a new poll from the Ronald Reagan Institute exploring Americans' views on foreign policy and national security. The good news, the poll finds, is that in today's global turmoil, “Americans across the political spectrum want our country to stand up to tyrants in Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing, and terrorists in the Middle East.”
But hidden within the crosstabs is a surprising breakdown of the foreign policy views of MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans. The Reagan Institute asked Republicans, “Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement?” Nearly two-thirds answered “yes,” and one-third answered “no.” The results are perhaps the most detailed look at the foreign policy views of MAGA Republicans to date.
And on every metric measured — from support for NATO, Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to concerns about democracy, human rights, China, and U.S. leadership — those who identify as MAGA Republicans are more hawkish and less isolationist than non-MAGA Republicans.
According to a Reagan Institute poll, Americans of all political leanings, including both MAGA (70%) and non-MAGA Republicans (68%), say politicians should prioritize domestic issues over foreign affairs.
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But this doesn’t mean they want the U.S. to withdraw from the world. Quite the opposite: a 51 percent majority of MAGA voters believe the U.S. should be “more involved and take the lead” in foreign policy, while only 39 percent say the U.S. should be “less involved and more reactive” – a 12-point difference in favor of U.S. leadership.
By contrast, only 48% of non-MAGA Republicans support greater U.S. involvement, while 44% say the country should be less involved.
When asked, “Does the United States have a moral obligation to uphold human rights and democracy in international affairs to the extent possible?” 73 percent of MAGA Republicans agreed, compared to 69 percent of non-MAGA Republicans. This included 40 percent of MAGA voters who “strongly agreed,” compared to just 33 percent of non-MAGA Republicans. Over 79 percent of MAGA voters also “strongly agreed” with the statement, “A strong U.S. military is essential to maintaining peace and prosperity at home and abroad,” compared to 66 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
MAGA voters disproportionately support NATO.
A majority of MAGA voters (53%) support the idea, slightly more than non-MAGA Republicans (50%). A majority of MAGA voters (63%) agree that “protecting freedom and democracy on the continent” is an important benefit of NATO membership (versus just 49% of non-MAGA Republicans). Meanwhile, 73% of MAGA voters say it is important to “keep Russia from expanding its territory and power” (versus just 60% of non-MAGA Republicans).
There is also strong support for collective defense as stipulated in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. When asked if they fully support the United States using military force to respond to an attack on a European NATO ally, 69% of MAGA Republicans said they supported it (compared to 63% of non-MAGA Republicans).
But when allies fail to live up to their commitment to devote 2% of their gross domestic product to defense, MAGA support for defending allies plummets by 23 percentage points to 46%. Even in that case, MAGA supporters are slightly more in favor of underspending on defending allies than non-MAGA Republicans (43%). In essence, Trump was completely in line with MAGA supporters when he declared in March that he would remain in NATO “100%” but would insist that allies take responsibility when it comes to military spending.
Seventy percent of MAGA supporters agree that it is important for the United States that Ukraine win the war against Russia (compared to 64% of non-MAGA Republicans). Moreover, a 51% majority of MAGA supporters believe that Russia is currently winning the war, while only 8% want Russia to win (the trope that MAGA supporters want Russia to win is a myth). And despite concerns about Biden's management of the war, a 47% majority want to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Notably, after hearing a series of arguments outlining the benefits of supporting Ukraine, including that nearly 90% of U.S. military aid stays in the United States and creates jobs for American workers, that aid weakens Russia's military power without endangering American lives, and that supporting Ukraine is essential to protecting the principle of national sovereignty and the right of nations to police their borders, support among MAGA voters increased 8 points to 55%, compared with a slight increase of 2 points among non-MAGA Republicans.
MAGA supporters are significantly more supportive of Israel than non-MAGA Republicans.
Over 72 percent of MAGA Republicans agree that “Israel has the right to continue its military operations in Gaza until the threat of Hamas is eliminated,” compared to just 65 percent of non-MAGA Republicans who agree. Also, 75 percent support the U.S. supplying weapons to Israel (including 52 percent who strongly support it), compared to 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans (with only 29 percent who strongly support it).
MAGA voters are far more concerned about Chinese aggression against Taiwan than non-MAGA Republicans: 71 percent of voters say they are concerned about China isolating Taiwan, compared to 59 percent of non-MAGA Republicans. 67 percent of voters support “expanding the U.S. military presence near Taiwan” to deter Chinese aggression (compared to 55 percent of non-MAGA Republicans), and 59 percent of voters support “expanding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan” to help deter China (compared to 49 percent of non-MAGA Republicans).
MAGA supporters express greater concern than non-MAGA Republicans about China's human rights violations, China's military buildup, China's unfair trade practices, China overtaking the United States to become the world's number one superpower, and China overtaking the United States to become the world's largest economy.
This is where the two factions of the GOP really divide: 63% of MAGA voters want the social media app banned, compared to just 30% of non-MAGA Republicans, a 33-point split. When informed that “TikTok is owned by a Chinese company with close ties to the Chinese government” and that China “may use TikTok to collect personal information about U.S. citizens and influence U.S. public opinion,” MAGA support for banning the app rises to 67%. In contrast, non-MAGA Republicans presented with this information still don't support a ban, much less a majority (43% in favor of a ban, 47% opposed).
What can we learn from these numbers?
Most importantly, the story that there is a split within the Republican Party between the “internationalist” Republican establishment and the “isolationist” Trump supporters is false. The real split within the Republican Party is between the MAGA movement and the neo-isolationists who want to succeed Trump, namely politicians like Sen. J.D. Vance (OH), Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL), and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA). They don’t actually represent what MAGA Republicans believe about foreign policy. Neither do senators like Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), who voted against aid to Ukraine for fear of incurring the wrath of Trump and MAGA supporters. They are all like cats bringing home dead mice that their owners don’t want.
And, not surprisingly, Trump understands his base better than his former followers. He knows that MAGA voters don't want the U.S. to retreat from the world. They want a president who will restore American power and lead on the world stage. Remember, when Trump first ran in 2016, he didn't promise to retreat from the world, he promised to win. At a rally in June 2016, he said, “Followers, we can't win anymore. We can't win on trade. We can't win on military force. And by the way, we're going to beat ISIS to the hilt. We have no other choice.”
And he's defeated ISIS like crazy, bombed Syria (twice), killed Iranian terrorist mastermind Qassem Soleimani, launched cyberattacks on Russia, authorized a strike that killed hundreds of Russian Wagner mercenaries, equipped Ukraine with Javelin missiles, and warned that if North Korea continues to threaten the US, he will unleash “fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
The record is clear: Trump is not an isolationist, and now, thanks to a Reagan Institute poll, we know that his supporters are not isolationists either.
