Elections are supposed to be about the future, but the 2024 campaign is fixated on the past. Former President Donald Trump is due to be sentenced in New York for falsifying business records to hide hush money payments he made to adult film actresses before the 2016 election, and is also facing a separate trial for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. On the campaign trail, Trump has promised retribution and revenge; meanwhile, President Biden is trying his hardest to hold another referendum on Trump's chaotic term in 2024, just like four years ago. Neither message is inspiring.
Thursday's first presidential debate, moderated by CNN, will be one of the few chances to change the course of the race. Americans are widely dissatisfied with the choices they already know well. Each candidate therefore has the burden of focusing more on presenting a compelling and plausible vision of what they want to achieve in a second term, giving Americans a reason not only to support them but to vote for them in the first place. Neither candidate expects turnout to be as high in 2024 as it was in 2020, nor does he think he can win back everyone who supported him four years ago. A series of polls from the past few days show a close race. Majorities have a negative view of Trump and Biden. Core Democratic supporters, including black and Hispanic voters, are not particularly motivated to vote for the president.
This is especially true for disillusioned Gen Z youth, who are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any other generation. They have experienced isolation due to COVID-19 school closures, the rollback of abortion rights, the unpeaceful transfer of power after the 2020 elections, and the government's failure to curb gun violence or reverse climate change. Some have lost interest in electoral politics after seeing brutal videos of civilian casualties in Gaza posted on their social media pages.
A Pew Research Center survey released Monday found that 62% of adults under 30 say the nation can't solve its big problems. That's the highest percentage of any age group and 16 points higher than just two years ago. A CBS-YouGov poll released Sunday found that nearly half of registered voters under 30 think neither Biden nor Trump understand the needs and concerns of young people. An overwhelming majority believe it's harder to buy a home and raise a family than it was for previous generations. Biden will need to convince this demographic that his policies are better for young people than Trump's.
Certainly, both men have presidential records to compare and contrast as they seek a second term. This includes policies, temperament, character, and promises kept and broken. These are important in that they will define what the next four years will look like. Presidents can and should also explain how many of the nation's problems have been exacerbated by his presidency, highlighted by the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade and the mob's storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. A Fox News poll last week found that more people, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, said the future of democracy was extremely important to their vote than any other issue. Trump also deserves much of the blame for degrading the national debate.
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But he accelerated a long-term trend of demonization and incitement. A report by the Open to Debate Foundation, published in conjunction with Princeton's Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, highlights how presidential debates have become more confrontational and less enlightening over the past two decades. In 2004, there were just three instances of crosstalk across all three debates. In 2020, there were 76 interruptions in the first debate alone. The researchers counted a total of five personal attacks across nine debates in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Between 2016 and 2020, candidates exchanged more than 60 personal attacks.
No one is expecting a repeat of the Lincoln-Douglas debate on Thursday. But Americans should expect from their presidential candidates a positive vision for a world-leading democracy and economy, and serious ideas to change the country for the better, even if only incrementally. Acknowledging voter discontent doesn't mean we have to wallow in it. Fortunately, the debate rules offer hope that it will be nobler than the first messy debate of 2020. For the first time since the Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960, there will be no studio audience to cheer or heckle. Microphones will be muted to minimize interruptions and crosstalk.
Republican Biden is 78, but at 81, he looks older than Trump. Neither man will live long enough to experience the full impact of his policies. The winner Thursday will be the one who is best able to convey that he cares about the country and world that his grandchildren will inherit.
What would you like to see in the 2024 Presidential Debates? Is there anything either candidate can do to change the way you vote? Share your thoughts with us.
