Every year brings new and seemingly existential threats to the news industry. In the past, the news publishing industry has proven adaptable enough to rise to the challenge, though not without its stumbles. This year's theme, search and referral traffic, feels truly existential, especially since 100% of respondents rated it as a concern ranging from “moderate” to “very significant.”
Digiday and Arc XP surveyed 115 publishers to understand how traffic changes are affecting publishers and what steps they are taking to address the challenges. All of the survey findings are published in a new report, “The State of Publisher Traffic,” which can be downloaded here.
With Facebook moving away from promoting news, Google introducing AI responses to search, and the cookie on its way out, here's a reason to pay attention. The Digiday/Arc XP survey clearly shows that search's traditional role as a traffic driver for publishers is shifting dramatically. The survey looks not only at data on developments, but also at potential traffic growth over the coming year, and what will drive publishers to rethink how they generate traffic. Respondents share their concerns, priorities, and the specific steps they're taking to respond.
That's not imagination.
No, you're not alone. The publisher search and referral model is changing, and everyone is feeling the effects.
Search, especially as a revenue driver, is under threat: 100% of survey respondents said search significantly impacts their annual results, and the majority reported that search is declining.
80% said they saw a decrease in search traffic in 2023. 76% said the decrease was in the 1% to 20% range, 2% reported a decrease in the 20% to 40% range, and a further 2% said they saw a decrease of 40% to 60%.
The impact it has on ROI is far from negligible.
The decline in search traffic will have a knock-on effect on referral traffic in general, but the decline is not just limited to the search engine change. Overall, publishers experienced a decline in all referral traffic in 2023. 78% of respondents see less referral traffic in 2023 than in 2022, and 75% say it will be between a 1% and 20% decrease year-over-year. This suggests a fundamental reshaping of traffic flows, with publishers at risk of being left out of the loop.
Recovery is possible, but don't get your hopes up
The key word here is “recovery.” This is an election year, with multiple countries running for office in the EU, US, South Africa, UK and India. This is a big factor in publishers' cautious optimism that traffic will recover in 2024. In fact, 93% of respondents expect traffic to recover in 2024.
However, there are two important caveats: first, this is a recovery, not a trend. Second, even among those expecting an improvement, 80% said they expect a 1% to 20% improvement. That means, when compared to the traffic decline recorded in the same survey, this improvement is likely to make up for the traffic decline from the previous year, but it will only be temporary.
What are publishers doing to combat this?
As mentioned above, the news industry has proven more adaptable than its critics would like to admit. So how are news publishers responding to not only a decline in referral traffic but a complete shift in their traffic collection models?
The most common answer was a renewed focus on video, particularly live streaming and longer-form video, targeted at various social media platforms at 81%. Short-form video, including TikTok, came in at 70% and 78% of respondents said that having some form of social media presence was their primary answer to this challenge.
If you've been in the industry for more than a few years, you can probably remember numerous moments when video was suggested as a future direction — and also moments when it wasn't.
Just like the advice that's been drummed into publishers' heads about embracing generative AI – figure out where and how it can help your journalism and revenue – the same applies to video. Figure out what you want to achieve with your video strategy, especially around monetization and engagement. What makes sense to engage with readers and advertisers directly on your site? Long-form video seems to make sense, while short-form social video can be deployed as more of a funnel approach. In other words, publishers continue to target social platforms heavily, but they should proceed cautiously about building long-term dependency on them, especially for revenue.
Looking to the future
With the above in mind (hopefully), video content has emerged as the top (69%) priority for news publishers to improve referral traffic in 2024. Similarly, and in the above context, it is instructive that cross-channel promotion has become as important as once-crucial SEO as a key strategy for success. While “diversifying traffic sources” may sound like a perpetual desire for publishers, given the shift in the decades-old model of search engine referrals, cookies, and social media promotion, it is more realistic to see 50% of respondents admitting that it is time to look for new approaches.
What's even more interesting is that the tried and trusted approach remains a strong contender: When you combine the number of publishers looking to expand their newsletter offerings with those launching newsletters for the first time, more than a third of respondents consider customized newsletters to be a priority in response to the new rules.
AI – Speaking of cautionary tales…
With 81% of respondents rating the role of AI as a moderately important concern when it comes to search/referral traffic, and 18% rating it as a very important concern, it's clear that this technology will remain top of mind for news publishers going forward. In fact, 71% of publishers say they have taken steps to address the impact of modern artificial intelligence on their traffic within the past six months.
For more detailed findings, see Digiday and Arc XP's full report, “The State of Publisher Traffic,” which you can download here.