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OPINION: Many young people feel deeply dissatisfied. For those who cannot afford to buy a home or have stable housing, the gap between aspirations and reality is large and widening.
Published June 29, 2024 • Last updated 5 hours ago • 5 minute read
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during the announcement of youth and education measures in Budget 2024 at Wanuskewin Heritage Park near Saskatoon on April 23. Photo by Heywood Yu/The Canadian Press
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal Party are widely seen as running out of steam in the aftermath of their stunning defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election, a stark signal that Canadians are ready for change.
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At first glance, this may seem like simply part of the cyclical nature of politics: Every incumbent has problems, and this Liberal government and its leader have had a disproportionate number of them. Sooner or later, every government wears out its welcome, and voters give the other party a chance to run a better government.
But that doesn't explain the whole story: Opinion polls and elections around the world show that voters are generally turning away from incumbent governments and seeking more radical, populist alternatives. Even more notable, younger voters are moving away from centrists.
Across democracies around the world, voters between the ages of 18 and 34 are abandoning incumbents in support of opposition parties, often choosing populist politicians who offer clear, simple answers to complex problems.
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As support for incumbent politicians, both left-wing and center-right, wanes, young people and the socially disadvantaged are leading the charge to leave their parties and search for alternatives.
why?
The kids are not okay
It is clear that voters in general, and especially those on the social, political and economic fringes, believe that the social contract has failed them. A host of issues, including the cost of living crisis, housing prices, education costs, advancement, stalled climate action, the effects of globalization, immigration rates, the opioid crisis, access to healthcare, and the power of multinational corporations, create a sense that incumbents are neither able nor willing to govern in their interests.
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Recent polling results from across Canada and abroad highlight this trend: A new Researchco poll shows the NDP's lead in British Columbia is narrowing, with David Eby's party trailing the socially conservative and climate change skeptical Conservatives of John Rustad by just six points.
The two parties are statistically tied among voters ages 18 to 34, a dramatic change from earlier this year, when the NDP held a double-digit lead among those same voters.
It's the same at the federal level: A recent Ledger poll found that if the polls were held today, 36% of voters aged 18 to 34 would vote for the Conservatives over any other party, a stunning reversal from the last election, which saw the Liberals win, thanks in part to strong support from young people.
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Examples of this pattern exist outside of Canada: In the United States, younger voters, especially from marginalized communities, are less likely to support President Joe Biden than they were in the past, a notable rebuke given the alternatives.
The situation in Europe
This phenomenon is not limited to English-speaking countries.
Young German voters are turning away from progressive politicians and supporting right-wing parties like the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and even far-right parties like the AfD (Alternative for Germany).
France is fast approaching parliamentary elections, with Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition trailing a distant third in the polls, and Marine Le Pen's far-right Rally National party, with its 28-year-old leader, is comfortably ahead and could win a majority if it works with other center-right parties.
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Young French voters are leading the move away from the centre, with more than four in 10 voters aged 18 to 34 indicating their support for Le Pen, according to a recent Ipsos poll.
This means that mainstream and incumbent parties around the world are struggling among younger voters who are attracted to more radical and populist options.
A Broken Social Contract
Many voters seem to be deeply dissatisfied with the world they live in. People from marginalized backgrounds no longer trust that current governments and mainstream parties can do what they need to make them feel safe, secure, and optimistic about the future. This lack of trust makes people more receptive to politicians who have a clear, simple message about what the problem is and what will be done about it.
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A sense of powerlessness is widespread in many parts of the world, and global surveys suggest that voters believe success is the result of forces beyond their control.
For those who can't afford to buy a home or have stable housing, the gap between aspiration and reality is large and widening — compounded by the fact that, as Vancouver continues to demonstrate, the most vibrant local economies and communities are often the ones they can't afford.
For those concerned about how to pay for their education and still secure a gainful, rewarding job, the numbers are worrying: Debt levels for graduates at all levels are steadily rising.
The social contract is not just about economic security.
While state security force excesses have led to the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement around the world, the current administration continues to move slowly toward police reform and the military has resisted change.
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For people concerned about climate change, the contrast between current reality and government action is stark: why vote for a party that claims to take climate change seriously but fails to act?
The impact of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the youngest members of society.
They missed out on life-defining moments, social, educational and economic opportunities, and have been working to catch up while those who were already financially better off forged ahead, literally and figuratively, working from home and tending their own gardens.
Again, the social contract is working relatively well for those who are already advantaged, but for those outside that advantaged group, especially disproportionately large numbers of young people, the future looks bleak.
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Concerns that the game is rigged
The thing about democracy is that it promises losers: They'll have a chance to compete again, and maybe do better, next time. But what if, win or lose, you feel like you never have a chance to win? If the game seems rigged, why play?
Why not take a chance on the alternative and listen to someone who claims to know who is to blame for the problems in your life and how to fix them?
If mainstream parties want to win back young people, whether they are the federal Liberals in Canada or politicians elsewhere in the world, they must acknowledge past mistakes and give those in need a reason to believe better times are ahead. Otherwise, they risk being pulled in a more extreme direction, like the Republican Party in the United States, or disappearing altogether.
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New leaders will not change anything unless they bring in a fundamentally new type of leadership that truly repairs a badly broken social contract and benefits young and marginalized voters.
Stuart Prest is a lecturer in political science at the University of British Columbia. This article originally appeared on The Conversation, an independent and non-profit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.
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