In recent years, global food security has been plagued by overlapping crises caused by conflict, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in severe food supply disruptions. Masu. These disruptions are further accentuated by several “food hot spots,” including the Red Sea, where Yemen-based Houthi fighters have attacked commercial ships, creating uncertainty for food shipments through the Suez Canal. .
The drought has reduced shipping traffic through the Panama Canal, and river transportation systems such as the Mississippi and Rhine rivers have also been hit.
The global food system will increasingly rely on the movement of food from a few major 'breadbasket' export regions to food-deficit areas around the world, often via these 'food choke points'. dependence on specific transport routes is increasing pressure on the world. food security. It also affects the competitiveness of agricultural products, delivery schedules, and food availability and prices.
Longer transit times also put perishables at risk, while transport disruptions such as changes in transport schedules and burdens on cargo handling and road transport departments result in significant delays.
Impact on Asia
Challenges loom for food exporting and importing countries. Exporting countries may face margin pressures that drive down prices for producers, while importing countries face potential increases in transportation costs that could lead to higher food prices, greater price volatility, and changes in consumption patterns. need to be addressed.
Southeast Asia, East Asia, and South Asia face additional vulnerabilities due to their dependence on European and Black Sea markets for key agricultural products and fertilizers.
Import disruptions pose inflation risks and contribute to the cost of living crisis. In countries facing crises such as extreme weather (Pakistan), conflict (Bangladesh and Myanmar), economic turmoil (Sri Lanka), and political uncertainty (Thailand), food price inflation exacerbates poverty and It's slowing down growth.
The most affected low- and middle-income households may also face increased risks of malnutrition, threatening to reverse decades of development progress in Asia.
Impact of trade disruption
In late December 2023, the United States announced plans to form a task force to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, but trade disruptions and food price inflation are unlikely to provide immediate relief.
Continued supply chain disruptions, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions, are raising concerns that food and fertilizer supplies could be weaponized, as exemplified by the Ukraine-Russia war.
In the face of repeated crises, urgent reform of the food system is essential. Governments and policymakers must prioritize preparedness and resilience building at national and regional levels to address food security issues and reduce future impacts.
For many net food importing countries in Asia, governments and policymakers need to diversify sources of supply to alleviate supply chain disruptions, apart from increasing national stocks. Singapore is a case in point, importing more than 90% of its food, while reducing its vulnerability to food price and supply fluctuations through interactions with more than 180 countries and territories.
The strategy was largely successful, resulting in Singapore enjoying the second most affordable food in the world after Australia. The average household in Singapore spends less than 10% of their monthly budget on food, compared to 38% in the Philippines.
Furthermore, although the Philippines has a large food deficit, it relies on imports for nearly 80% of its agricultural imports, ranking it at the bottom of the list of low-priced countries. Food inflation in the Philippines reached 8% in 2023.
Facilitate access to food
Nationally, governments need to implement early action plans and strengthen social safety nets to ease the burden of the cost of living crisis.
Initiatives such as food relief, cash assistance, and meal voucher programs for low-income households can help ease the burden. Subsidies and tax measures that provide temporary relief may also be considered.
Coping with food price inflation, as the average household in countries such as the Philippines spends more than a third of their income on food, and low-income households in countries such as Indonesia spend up to 64% on food each month. This is critical to protecting the livelihoods of average and low-income people. Households become malnourished.
Increased intra-regional food trade
To address the interrelated issues of food availability, access, and affordability, governments in Asia that rely on food imports are increasingly seeking to avoid risks posed by chokepoints by purchasing grains and oil. Agreements can be concluded with regional agricultural exporting countries such as Australia and New Zealand, which are large seed producers.
A greater focus on intra-regional trade is also being encouraged, such as in Southeast Asia, which has large exporters of key agricultural products such as rice (Vietnam and Thailand) and palm oil (Malaysia and Indonesia).
Increasing intraregional trade reduces the region's dependence on food imports, while promoting regional food availability, market stability, and economic development.
This could be supported by efforts to encourage investment in agricultural research and development in the region to increase production of other staples (such as wheat) and reduce dependence on imports.
Looking to the future
For governments and policymakers in Asia, the ongoing supply chain disruptions in the Middle East are a reminder of the importance of the resilience of national and regional food supplies and agricultural systems.
As food price inflation and malnutrition continue, countries need to address these interrelated concerns at national and regional levels in the short and long term.
By implementing policy measures such as diversifying food imports and strengthening social safety nets, the region is more likely to be prepared for future food security challenges.
Genevieve Donnellon-May is a Research Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Research Institute in Melbourne, Australia. Paul Teng is an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
