Honorary President of ECOSOC;
Dear colleagues at the International Financial and Trade Organization,
I am honored to moderate this dialogue on current trends in the global economy.
As a moderator, I would like to share my personal perspective and raise some issues for discussion.
The good news is that the global economy is recovering from the global economic crisis.
But the recovery is fragile and its pace is slowing. As shown in the “World Economic Situation and Prospects” in front of us, the United Nations estimates that output will increase by 3.3% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012, compared to 3.9% in 2010. is expected to increase by 3.6 percent.
However, the pace of growth varies by country. Developing countries are experiencing high output growth and are driving the global recovery. However, this momentum is losing momentum, largely due to the slow or stalled recovery in most developed countries.
Growth remains sluggish in many developed countries, and this is a drag on growth in developing countries. The U-turn to fiscal austerity while the unemployment rate continues to be high is not helping our own people, let alone other people.
Furthermore, macroeconomic policy stances among major economies remain divergent. This risks further delaying recovery. And financial volatility is worsening, as evidenced by fluctuations in exchange rates.
Developed countries are still in the midst of a jobs crisis. At the current pace of output growth, it will take another four to five years for employment to reach pre-crisis levels. At the same time, the number of people without work for more than six months continues to rise in many developed countries. Youth unemployment remains high.
By contrast, employment levels have generally returned to pre-crisis levels in many developing countries and economies in transition, particularly in Asia. But employment challenges remain, with more poor people in vulnerable jobs and young workers still unable to find decent work.
Additionally, there are new challenges to global growth and development, such as natural disasters. Crude oil prices have soared. Since late 2010, food and oil prices have risen again.
Higher food prices may be good for farmers, but the poorest people are most affected by higher food prices. Rising food prices exacerbate poverty levels and food insecurity.
Increasing frequency of disasters, rising energy and food prices, and uncertainty about economic recovery threaten the hard-won progress of developing countries. The challenges are most acute in the least developed countries, primarily in Africa and South Asia. Without further efforts, some MDGs may not be achieved. In particular, additional resources will be needed to accelerate progress towards achieving the MDGs. But we also need resources to finance the large-scale investments that make growth sustainable and resilient, especially for least developed countries.
Addressing these risks and uncertainties poses serious policy challenges for all governments around the world. Let me briefly introduce some of them.
First, the economic recovery is still fragile for many developed countries, so they must be careful not to embark on fiscal austerity measures prematurely.
Second, we must continue to focus on jobs. In this respect, policies must be supportive of employment. These need to be combined with policies that foster structural change and productivity growth. This will lead to more sustainable economic growth in the medium to long term.
Third, without stronger international policy collaboration, none of these efforts are likely to succeed.
Finally, to ensure sustainable development, including the achievement of the MDGs, we need to ensure that developing countries have sufficient resources, including in the medium and long term, while recognizing that many developed countries are implementing austerity measures. must ensure availability.
This brings us to the final question. To this end, I will serve as Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), which will be held in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012. In Rio, we need to make significant progress to put the global economy on a truly sustainable development path.This requires fundamental technological and social transformation
This will require significant additional investment, especially in developing countries. As the 2009 and 2011 World Economic and Social Surveys found, financing is key to greening economies to ensure environmental sustainability and to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. It becomes.
We recognize that developing countries have limited capacity to mobilize long-term finance. Therefore, a significant part of the additional investment will need to be financed by international resource transfers.
Various initiatives are planned. But we need to do more. The success of Rio+20 will depend on stronger commitments to finance and technology transfer.
The world's economic and financial landscape is defined by ecological changes and modern social and political developments. It has become clear that economic development is unsustainable unless it is both ecologically and socially sustainable.
This is how we view the global development scene.
The world cannot tolerate inaction or a “go it alone” approach. We need to institutionalize a framework for sustainable development within the multilateral system.
As I have suggested, concrete paths to a sustainable recovery exist. Everyone can benefit from this, but only if we work together.
Thank you for your attention.
