The global economy is already experiencing significant economic losses from climate change, with developing countries bearing the brunt, according to a report released on Tuesday ahead of COP28 climate change negotiations.
The study, conducted by the University of Delaware, estimates that the effects of human-induced climate change reduced global economic output by 6.3% last year, taking into account a population-weighted average.
These figures include the direct impacts of climate change, such as disruption to agriculture and manufacturing, and reduced productivity due to extreme heat, as well as the knock-on effects on global trade and investment.
“Climate change is making the world trillions of dollars poorer, and most of the burden falls on poorer countries,” said lead author James Rising of the University of Delaware.
“We hope this information highlights the challenges that many countries are already facing today and the support that is urgently needed to address them,” he added.
Without taking into account the impact on average people, the global GDP loss in 2022 amounts to 1.8% of GDP, or about $1.5 trillion.
“The difference between these two numbers reflects the uneven distribution of impacts, which are generally concentrated in low-income countries and tropical regions with large populations and low GDP,” the authors said in a statement. Stated.
Least developed countries saw an even bigger decline in population-weighted GDP at 8.3%, with Southeast Asia and Southern Africa particularly affected, losing 14.1% and 11.2% of their GDP, respectively.
On the other hand, some developed countries benefited. Thanks to a warm winter, Europe's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by nearly 5% last year.
But these gains are “on the verge of disappearing” as summer heat offsets winter warming, the report warns.
At last year's COP27 talks in Egypt, countries agreed to establish a dedicated fund to help vulnerable countries cope with “loss and damage” from climate disasters and extreme weather events.
Some details of the fund have recently been agreed, but who will contribute how much money, in particular, will be a key point of negotiation at this year's COP28 negotiations in Dubai, which begin on Thursday.
According to the report, low- and middle-income countries have experienced a total loss of $21 trillion in capital and GDP over the past 30 years, equivalent to about half of the total GDP of developing countries in 2023. do.
The authors specify that the losses are a “conservative estimate” as the analysis does not take into account non-market losses or impacts.
With input from AFP.
