Chinese leaders are aiming for economic growth of around 5% this year. This comes amid a host of problems facing the world's second-largest economy: weak consumer spending, a volatile real estate market, a multitrillion-dollar stock market crash, and a U.S. move to rein in its huge tech ambitions. That's a pretty ambitious goal, given record levels of youth unemployment, and high levels of unemployment. Local government debt. The effects of these tensions are being felt around the world, from commodity prices to stock markets. And President Xi Jinping's government has no good options to resolve the situation. This has sparked debate over whether China's economy, after 30 years of unprecedented growth, is headed for Japanese-style stagnation.
China achieved its 2023 growth target (also around 5%), but it will be difficult to achieve that performance again. The standard of comparison is much less favorable this time around, as zero-coronavirus rules are no longer holding back national production. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg generally expect gross domestic product to expand by about 4.6% this year, with many citing continued challenges from real estate and deflation. Consumer prices fell in January at the fastest pace since 2009, underscoring the pressure. Trade also has risks. Although exports surged at the start of the year, Beijing still faces significant pressure from U.S.-led trade restrictions. Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the restrictions “embarrassing.”
