This article has been reviewed in accordance with Science X's editorial processes and policies. The editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the authenticity of the content:
fact confirmed
Peer-reviewed publications
trusted sources
proofread
got it!Credit: CC0 Public Domain
×Close
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
Even if CO2 emissions were significantly reduced from today, the global economy is already committed to a 19% decline in incomes by 2050 due to climate change, a study published in the journal Nature finds. I did. These damages are six times greater than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) assess the future impact of changing climate conditions on economic growth and its sustainability, based on empirical data from more than 1,600 regions around the world over the past 40 years. did.
“Significant income declines are projected for most regions, including North America and Europe, with South Asia and Africa being the most affected. “caused by the effects of fluctuations in labor productivity or infrastructure,'' said Maximilian Kotz, PIK scientist and lead author of the study.
Overall, annual global damages are estimated at $38 trillion, which could rise to between $19 and $59 trillion by 2050. These damages are primarily caused by rising temperatures, but also by changes in rainfall and temperature fluctuations. It could rise even more if you factor in other extreme weather events like storms and wildfires.
Huge economic costs for the United States and the European Union
“Our analysis shows that climate change will cause significant economic damage within the next 25 years in nearly every country in the world, and even in highly developed countries such as Germany, France and the United States.” says PIK scientist Leonie Wentz. study.
“These short-term damages are the result of our past emissions. If we want to avoid at least some of them, further adaptation efforts will be needed. and must be reduced immediately, otherwise the economic losses will be even greater in the second half of this century, reaching a global average of up to 60% by 2100. This clearly shows that protecting the climate is much cheaper than not protecting it, and there is no need to consider non-economic impacts such as losses. About life and biodiversity. ”
To date, global projections of the economic damage caused by climate change have typically focused on the impact on countries of long-term average annual temperatures.
The researchers incorporate the latest empirical evidence on the effects of climate on economic growth in more than 1,600 rural areas around the world over the past 40 years, and focus on the next 26 years to predict how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect regional growth. We were able to predict the damage to a large extent. Gain insight across time and space while reducing the large uncertainties associated with long-term forecasting.
Scientists combined empirical models with state-of-the-art climate simulations (CMIP-6). Importantly, they also assessed how persistently climate impacts have affected the economy in the past and took this into account.
The least responsible countries will suffer the most damage.
“Our study highlights that climate impacts are highly inequitable. Damage can be seen almost everywhere, but tropical countries will be hit hardest because they are already warm. Therefore, further temperature increases will be most harmful there: countries with the least responsibility for climate change will see their citizens suffer 60% greater income losses than high-income countries and 40% greater than high-emitting countries. “This is predicted,” says Anders Levermann, head of the Potsdam Institute's Complexity Science Research Unit and co-author of the study.
“They are also the countries with the least resources to adapt to its impacts. It is up to us to decide. Structural changes to renewable energy systems are necessary for our security and we If we continue on the path we're on, the planet's temperature won't stabilize until we stop burning oil, gas, and coal.''
Further information: Leonie Wenz, “Economically tackling climate change”, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07219-0. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07219-0
Magazine information: Nature
