Indeed, there are significant hurdles to mustering unanimous support among member states with differing threat and security priorities. In this regard, Germany is significantly hesitant due to the apparent absence of EU leadership.
That could change quickly, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tweeted and Macron predicted. The timing of Macron's vision is tied to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Gaza and Donald Trump's possible re-election as US president. Additionally, the US' confrontational approach and the potential outcome of the Ukraine war have raised concerns about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Promoting deeper EU integration by promoting a more sovereign and unified bloc signals progress towards greater federalization to cushion the effects of unstable geopolitics.
Building this unity is no longer up for debate. It is absolutely necessary. This includes developing credible defense and other concrete measures proposed by Mr Macron to strengthen the EU's military capabilities. After all, he said, “Europe will die. It can die.” To avoid this fate, autonomous defense is necessary for several reasons.
Sailors prepare a French Rubis-class submarine at Toulon naval base in southern France on April 15. Photo: AP
First, relying on the protection of other countries is outdated. The EU must ensure its own security. Such independence would enhance the bloc's geopolitical role and fulfill its important security functions of “credibility and persuasion.” [and] As such, Europe does not need to be hostage to American leadership, which fluctuates every four years.
In line with these objectives, Europe's pursuit of strategic autonomy through deeper integration and common defense will have significant implications for its relationships with the United States, NATO, and China.
Second, during his speech, Mr. Macron made no secret of his intention to create a Europe that is not a client state of the United States. He also criticized the influence of American culture in Europe. As a result, one of the key outcomes of his strategy will be a gradual change in the EU's transatlantic approach, departing from US policies that are inconsistent with European interests.
Furthermore, it affects NATO, which remains the cornerstone of Europe's security architecture. Each country will seek to strengthen its defense capabilities and cooperation on a voluntary basis, and depending on President Trump's position, may maintain a commitment to collective defense within the framework of an alliance.
The screen shows Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron attending the Beijing International Automobile Exhibition held in Beijing on April 25.Photo: Reuters
Finally, prioritizing strategic autonomy would allow Europe to engage with China on its own terms, free from external influences, fostering a more balanced approach and encouraging Brussels to , allowing them to pursue their political and security interests more independently.
These three changes are consistent with Chinese President Xi Jinping's geopolitical interests and could have a major impact on China-EU relations. However, conflicting views regarding China continue between Germany, France, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. It was not mentioned in Macron's speech amid his re-election aspirations. China highly values ​​France's foresight and prioritizing national interests over ideology, and has publicly supported the European Commission's president. EU strategic autonomy. Amid tensions with the United States, Beijing values ​​France's firm stance of pragmatism. President Xi's impending visit to Paris suggests a recognition of the alignment of strategic interests. For Germany, on the other hand, it's all about ensuring business continues as usual. However, Mr Macron has urged a reassessment of trade policy, a sentiment reflected in his frequent references to China during his speeches, primarily in relation to trade. His efforts to protect European industry and reduce dependence on Chinese production signal possible changes in economic relations, including reshoring and diversification. In fact, Mr. Macron's proactive stance is clear from his efforts to strengthen the EU's investigation into Chinese electric vehicles.
02:36
As tensions rise, Russia-Ukraine war will be discussed at China-EU summit
As tensions rise, Russia-Ukraine war will be discussed at China-EU summit
This potential shift could lead to a more proactive and pragmatic China policy driven by realpolitik, gradually reducing the weight of economics and trade in the EU's strategy. Such a change could pave the way for the EU and China to recognize each other as equals in terms of power.
To date, the relationship between the two countries has been conditioned by differences in political ideology and approaches to international relations. The EU adheres to a liberal framework, in contrast to China's pragmatic political stance, which has narrowed its relationship with trade.
Macron's vision thus has the potential to shape Europe's role and its relationship with the two superpowers, but the strategy is not without its challenges. America's traditional influence, Europe's internal divisions, budgetary constraints, and geopolitical limitations are major obstacles to realizing its ambitious agenda. Charting a new path requires practical solutions.
Before implementing this new vision, confidence-building measures are needed, including resuming bilateral trade negotiations between China and the EU with clear objectives. Systemic negotiations need to address barriers to market access and ensure reciprocity. Establishing green technology partnerships is critical to mitigating the economic weaponization of clean energy.
While the United States prioritizes “America first, China first,” Europe is at a crossroads. Embracing strategic autonomy is not just a policy shift. It is a declaration of European sovereignty and a renewed determination to shape our own destiny in an ever-changing world.
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa is a geopolitical analyst specializing in EU-Asia relations.
