Editor's note: Scott Jennings, CNN's senior political commentator and Republican campaign adviser, is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a former campaign adviser to Sen. Mitch McConnell. He is a partner at his RunSwitch Public Relations in Louisville, Kentucky. Follow him on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinions on CNN.
CNN —
The 2024 presidential election offers voters an unusual experience. Not only is it a referendum on the incumbent, but Americans will also have a choice between her two chief executives with whom they are familiar: the current Oval Office holder and her immediate predecessor. will be faced with.
And something interesting has happened in comparative public opinion polls so far. There appears to be real nostalgia for the Trump era, even though in-person polls remain relatively close.
What should we think about this post-Trump conflict? After January 6, 2021, most voters and commentators (including this one) are furious with President Trump, and the possibility of his return to the White House is gone.
But years after that terrible day and three years into Biden's term, it's clear that millions of Americans see things differently.
The latest CNN poll reveals:
“Looking back, 55% of all Americans now think Trump's presidency was a success, while 44% think it was a failure.” In a January 2021 poll conducted just days after the Capitol attack, 55% said they believed Trump's presidency was a failure.
As for Biden, “61% say his presidency so far has been a failure, while 39% say it has been a success.”
The biggest problem for Biden is clear: the economy, especially inflation. 41% of Americans say inflation and the high cost of living are the most important financial issues facing their families today, up from just 8% in June 2017. . Rising food, gas, energy, and housing costs are making life difficult for people. “Bidenomics” in a form that seriously threatens the president's re-election.
Against the usual challengers, sustained inflation will be tough enough for the Biden team. But it's an even bigger problem when facing President Trump, who as president has led an economy that many believe is better than it is today. On top of that, Trump spent years branding himself as one of the world's best businessmen before running for president.
According to a report in the New York Times in August 2020, several months have passed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. [Trump] has built an enduring brand, especially among conservative voters, who continue to view him as a successful businessman and tough negotiator. Many voters praised his economic management before the pandemic and did not blame him for the damage caused by the pandemic. ”
In other words, views of Mr. Trump and his supposed economic wizards are deep-seated. And so is anger over persistent inflation that has made going to the grocery store a pain for all but the wealthiest American families.
When presented with the poll choices, Americans seem to be nostalgic for the recent past, when they felt like they were moving forward rather than being swallowed up by runaway inflation. The president at the time was Trump, and now we are benefiting from nostalgia for those better days.
There are other signs that voters may miss Trump. According to a Gallup poll conducted in April, only 38% of Americans believe that Biden is a “strong and decisive leader,” down 8 points from 2020. For Trump, that number was 57%, up one point from four years ago. While Mr. Biden's scores on a variety of metrics, including likeability and effectiveness, have declined dramatically, Mr. Trump's scores have remained surprisingly stable.
If voters don't support Biden on specific issues like the economy or immigration (and many Americans do), then these problems persist and Biden doesn't have much power to find solutions or change course. It is easy to see how voters might conclude that there is no such thing. In a good direction. This creates a perceptual doom loop that Biden will struggle to break out of.
Mr. Biden's perceived weaknesses present Mr. Trump with opportunities on many fronts. As much as he has to channel the anger of Americans angry at Biden on a variety of issues, he doesn't necessarily have to offer detailed policy solutions. For Trump, managing from the outside worked well in 2016 and will likely work again in 2024.
In 2020, Trump was running against a different Biden, at least as a matter of public perception. Biden was old at the time, but not so much that people thought he was unfit for office. And while Mr. Biden benefited from campaigning largely from his basement and on Zoom, Mr. Trump struggled in the coronavirus spotlight.
Now, the tables have turned. Four years have passed since then, and Mr. Biden has aged significantly, often rambling and stumbling over his own words. With the pandemic long in the rearview mirror, it is becoming increasingly clear that Biden is not exactly a paragon of vitality and dynamism. Advisers told Axios that a group of his own staff recently began walking with Mr. Biden across the South Lawn to distract from Mr. Biden's stiff gait.
Mr. Trump has had his share of gaffes and mix-ups, but there is no doubt that he is seen as more energetic and “accustomed to it” than Mr. Biden. And while Biden's gaffes are piling up, it's also a relief that Trump isn't in the spotlight as much as he was as president.
Finally, nostalgia for Trump may also be the result of Americans losing faith in Biden as an effective manager of government. In 2020, 52% of Americans thought Biden could “effectively manage the government.” Now, that number is down to his 38%. Trump's approval rating currently stands at 49%, up 1 point from 2020, according to Gallup.
Biden's main argument in 2020 was that he was more experienced and competent, and those traits would result in less drama in Washington and around the world. But that concept shattered with America's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and has not recovered since. The sense that the country is going off track continues to haunt Mr. Biden as protesters, including some who chanted anti-Semitic slogans, block roads, bridges and college campuses across the country. Whether you believe Biden is directly responsible or not, the US president takes credit and responsibility for most events that occur on his watch.
For a team that once claimed to be essentially adults returning to power, the Biden administration now faces a tough re-election campaign against a figure many Americans will find nostalgic.
