Sadiq Khan was re-elected as Mayor of London, defeating Susan Hall 44% to 33%. Below is the immediate reaction.
It would have been difficult for a Conservative candidate to win the London mayoral election in a so-called Labor city with a highly anti-Conservative political environment. But it's not impossible.
The party's best opportunity is to make this campaign a referendum on Sadiq Khan, and to seek the mayoralty based on his biggest weakness (crime), most divisive policy (Urez extension), and his general tone. was to focus on. Instead, by nominating flawed candidates like Susan Hall, the Conservative Party has acknowledged that the election is an option.
Some metrics stand out more than others. Mr Hall won the Ealing Hillingdon constituency (which includes the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituencies that Labor failed to win last year) by a margin of 2,000 votes. But it actually represents a small swing to Khan. It's the same story in Havering and Redbridge, another area outside London. As expected, Mr Hall won, but there was a 0.6% swing for Labor. Khan actually “upended” West Central, which was won by Sean Bailey in 2021.
Meanwhile, in Labour's inner-London strongholds of Lambeth and Southwark, Mr Khan not only won by a landslide, but secured a 7.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labor. This is a devastating combination of minimizing losses in weak areas and maximizing profits in strong areas.
Indeed, Mr. Hall has outperformed some polls that suggest Mr. Khan has a lead of more than 20 points. After enduring a grueling campaign and a challenging introduction to national politics, she can take her fill from her credible performance. But look north and CCHQ may feel very different.
In Ben Houchen (winner in the Tees Valley) and Andy Street (currently too close to call in the West Midlands), the Conservatives have a strong seat that sets them apart from the hugely unpopular national party. Candidates were selected. To be sure, they benefited from incumbency, name recognition, and track record, but it's a reminder that candidate quality still matters, especially in local elections.
Khan performed better than I expected at 44 percent. I thought the big question for him would be how successful he would be in “squeezing” the smaller parties. Because convincing Liberal Democrat and Green Party voters to give him their second choice and asking them to completely abandon their party and cast their only vote for Khan under the primary post is quite That's because it's something else.
But the mayor did more than that. He secured a 3.2% swing from Conservative to Labor citywide. When aiming for a third term. After Uresu extension. By the way, the chatter last night that Hall was projected to win (before the votes were counted) also seems a little ridiculous.
Khan's campaign benefited from relentless message discipline. His line heading into the final weeks was solid. This is a close two-horse race, with Hall a “far-right” Conservative. In other words, he forced voters to make a choice. If it had been a referendum, who knows what they would have said?
I will share further thoughts on Tuesday. Until then, have a nice long weekend.
